2056 W Roselle Ave · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$409,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $333/sqft · at area comps Est $415k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-level home is host to a spacious and flexible open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and luxury, including the luxe owner's suite at the back of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• KITCHEN LIVING DINING AREAS
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $410k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (46.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (53.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (53.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.0% in Apache Junction — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 772 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $190,586 (53.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.88%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 17.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,209
• List price: $409,990
• Delta: -1.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2125 W Roselle Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,232 (0%)	2mo	$404,990	$329	96
2139 W Roselle Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-2%)	2mo	$393,990	$327	92
2081 W Roselle Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+4%)	2mo	$389,990	$306	91
2205 W Ramona Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	2mo	$444,990	$318	70
2189 W Ramona Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+14%)	2mo	$451,990	$320	69
2221 W Ramona Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+14%)	2mo	$456,990	$324	68
2233 W Ramona Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+14%)	2mo	$451,990	$320	67
2648 W Simone Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+8%)	0mo	$399,990	$301	61
2776 W Sheppard Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+8%)	3mo	$414,990	$312	59
2752 W Shepperd Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+8%)	2mo	$375,990	$283	59
2773 W Shepperd Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+8%)	3mo	$422,990	$318	57
2864 W Shepperd Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+8%)	2mo	$409,990	$308	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-156,556
• Equity at exit: $61,131

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.32×
• Total profit: $-266,683
• Equity at exit: $35,448

Cash invested: $114,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $432,240 ($335/sqft)
• Median days on market: 29 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 772
• Price-to-rent: 17.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$512 /mo · $6,150/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-1,328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,587

Max offer price $217,867

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,044	-5% $-1,186	+0% $-1,328	+5% $-1,469	+10% $-1,611
Rent	-10% $-1,478	-5% $-1,403	+0% $-1,328	+5% $-1,252	+10% $-1,177
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,121	-0.5pp $-1,223	base $-1,328	+0.5pp $-1,434	+1.0pp $-1,542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,498
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11519 E Persimmon Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,900	$1.69	49d	1	1.36mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$6,150
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$23,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,732
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious and flexible floorplan, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and adds a polished look ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Cactus Canyon Junior High F AZ #151/218 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High Apache Junction High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B