8210 County Road 5860 · Shallowater, TX 79363

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1983 0.29 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully remodeled 1983 mobile home featuring updated interiors and a meticulously maintained yard. This property offers a great blend of affordability and modern comfort. Situated within the sought-after Shallowater ISD, it provides excellent potential for homeowners or rental investment. Don't miss this move-in ready opportunity!

Key facts

• Updated interiors
• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1983

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• UPDATED INTERIORS
• METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED YARD
• MOVE-IN READY OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.83%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $111,901
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.37×
• Total profit: $288,519
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $222/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $812

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $110,000 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Fully remodeled 1983 mobile home featuring updated interiors and a meticulously maintained yard. This property offers a great blend of affordability and modern comfort. Situated within the sought-after Shallowater ISD, it provides excellent potential for homeowners or rental investment. Don't miss this move-in ready opportunity!

18. 2024-07-23
    price $95,000
19. 2024-07-15
    price $100,000
20. 2024-06-20
    price $105,000
21. 2024-06-17
    price $109,500
22. 2024-06-11
    price $109,700
23. 2024-06-07
    price $109,800
24. 2024-05-30
    price $109,900
25. 2024-05-21
    price $110,000
26. 2024-05-21
    price $110,000
27. 2024-05-18
    price $113,000
28. 2024-05-18
    price $113,000
29. 2024-05-15
    price $114,000
30. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus
31. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus
32. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus
33. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus
34. 2009-02-10
    soldstatus
35. 2003-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $222 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,791/yr (+$149/mo · 806.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$222
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $8,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,033
• After-tax cash flow: $7,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $110,000 LARMLS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $95,000 LARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $100,000 LARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $105,000 LARMLS
• 2024-06-17 Price Changed $109,500 LARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $109,700 LARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $109,800 LARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $109,900 LARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $110,000 LARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $110,000 LARMLS
• 2024-05-18 Price Changed $113,000 LARMLS
• 2024-05-18 Price Changed $113,000 LARMLS
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $114,000 LARMLS
• 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $222 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.