8227 St Lo Rd · Houston, TX 77033

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 974 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1948 8,341 sqft lot $184/sqft · 19% above area Est $186k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a modern kitchen with quartz countertops and refrigerator included. Both the primary and secondary bathrooms have been tastefully updated. Spacious layout with plenty of natural light and a large backyard perfect for entertaining or kids to play. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping, dining, and major highways. Move-in ready!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large backyard
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Converted garage; Driveway; Has 1-space carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first floor living listed); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1948
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fence; Back yard fencing; Subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom, first floor (11 x 20); Bedroom, first floor (14 x 10); Bedroom, first floor (10 x 11); Bedroom, first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-754/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodson School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,436/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11123% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,592 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,722
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -3.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5622 Beldart St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,002 (+3%)	2mo	$120,000	$120	82
8130 Rockford Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	945 (-3%)	9mo	$169,999	$180	79
8426 Rockford Dr	0.23mi	3/1.5	875 (-10%)	1mo	$100,000	$114	70
5774 Belmark St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-4%)	11mo	$70,000	$75	56
4929 Paula St	0.68mi	3/1.0	989 (+2%)	13mo	$175,000	$177	55
5345 Higgins St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,048 (+8%)	13mo	$115,000	$110	50
5306 Kenilwood Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (+7%)	5mo	$80,000	$77	50
5414 Lyndhurst Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+13%)	12mo	$174,900	$159	50
5007 Northridge Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,069 (+10%)	2mo	$163,900	$153	48
4917 Higgins St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-8%)	3mo	$75,000	$83	45
7710 Sharondale Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+8%)	10mo	$75,000	$71	44
5218 Higgins St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	852 (-12%)	9mo	$99,000	$116	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-29,386
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,109
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,207/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $167,896

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-12	+0% $-63	+5% $-114	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-120	+0% $-63	+5% $-6	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-17	base $-63	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5042 Mallow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	5d	1	0.33mi
5038 Carmen St Apt 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	0.48mi
5010 Carmen St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	44d	1	0.51mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	44d	1	0.53mi
4923 Paula St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	0.64mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	44d	1	0.65mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	13d	1	1.08mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	1.09mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	13d	1	1.16mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	25d	1	1.18mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	8d	1	1.27mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	17d	1	1.29mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	2d	1	1.38mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	18d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Pending 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Pending 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Pending 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $179,000 Pending 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-05-14
   listed $1,595
9. 2026-05-13
   listed $189,000 Active 373-char remark
10. 2024-12-05
    soldstatus
11. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,207 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,068/yr (+$89/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,207
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$927
• After-tax cash flow: $173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Rental Removed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,595 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,207 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.