23019 Covelo Refuse Rd · Covelo, CA 95428

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 959 Days on market

Built 2008 5.00 ac lot $94/sqft · 10% below area Est $223k · 10% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• 10 parking spots
• Built 2008

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#806 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Round Valley Unified (rural): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #1,281 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $78 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 959 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $99k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $149,328 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 959 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,304
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -10.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,309
• Equity at exit: $58,436

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,758
• Equity at exit: $70,556

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95428

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $170,703

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-133	+0% $-202	+5% $-271	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-261	+0% $-202	+5% $-143	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-151	base $-202	+0.5pp $-254	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 959 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 958 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 957 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 956 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 955 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 953 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 952 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 949 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 948 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 947 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 946 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 943 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 942 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 941 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 940 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 939 DOM
17. 2026-01-05
    status Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

18. 2025-10-23
    status Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

19. 2025-10-23
    price $199,900 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

20. 2025-07-21
    status Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

21. 2025-04-10
    status Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

22. 2025-04-10
    price $229,000 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

23. 2025-01-06
    status Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

24. 2025-01-06
    price $250,000 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

25. 2024-08-28
    status Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

26. 2024-03-04
    status Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

27. 2024-01-13
    price $285,000 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

28. 2023-08-29
    listed $299,000 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This 2120+/- sq. ft. 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home sits on a knoll on 5 acres with views of the valley and mountains. Off grid living with solar. Soft Walnut close cabinets, Corian counters, wood stove, open concept living with built-in shelves and a murphy bed in the living room. Eat at bar counter in the kitchen with ample storage. Large bathroom with a tile walk-in shower, soaking tub and tile floors. Two large bedrooms upstairs. Attached covered workshop area, 2 ponds, deck and patio area with fenced in yard and garden. 7500 gallons of water storage. Room for animals with fenced in pasture.

29. 2022-04-21
    listed $299,000 Active
30. 2018-07-11
    listed $230,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Round Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633720
• Math proficiency: 11% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,309
• Composite: 18.26/100
• National rank: #14063
• State rank: #1281 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Covelo

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #806
• US rank: #22831

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covelo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,667

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Hispanic / Latino 30% Native American 29% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 151.0199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-10-23 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $199,900 BAREIS
• 2025-07-21 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-04-10 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $229,000 BAREIS
• 2025-01-06 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $250,000 BAREIS
• 2024-08-28 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2024-03-04 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $285,000 BAREIS
• 2023-08-29 Listed $299,000 BAREIS
• 2022-04-21 Listed $299,000 BAREIS
• 2018-07-11 Listed $230,000 BAREIS