Swayback - 2 Bedrooms Plan · Dana, NC 28731

$217,300

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 540 sqft · SingleFamily · 675 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 675 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price provided (details withheld here)

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Single-floor plan (plan entry level not specified)
• Construction: Living area approximately 540; Listed as new construction plan
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (1.5 total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Plan named Swayback - 2 Bedrooms; Active new-construction plan

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $217k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-13/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Dana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#511 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Henderson County Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #64 of 178 in NC (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,534 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 675 days — a 12% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,950 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 675 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-35,254
• Equity at exit: $32,400

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-30,673
• Equity at exit: $18,788

Cash invested: $60,844 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28731

• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,140
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,260/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,901

Max offer price $217,140

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,325
• Closing costs: $6,519
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Hill Branch Rd Flat Rock, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,900	$1.78	14d	54	1.28mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $217,300 Active 675 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $217,300 Active 674 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $217,300 Active 673 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $217,300 Active 672 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $217,300 Active 670 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $217,300 Active 669 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $217,300 Active 667 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $217,300 Active 666 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $217,300 Active 665 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $217,300 Active 664 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $217,300 Active 661 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $217,300 Active 660 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $217,300 Active 659 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $217,300 Active 658 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $217,300 Active 657 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $217,300 Active 656 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,172
• − Property taxes: −$3,260
• − Insurance: −$1,086
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$6,321
• Taxable loss: −$3,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702100
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,101
• Composite: 42.5/100
• National rank: #3206
• State rank: #64 of 178 in NC

Livability — Dana

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #511
• US rank: #18764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,075

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,075 people
• By 2030: 129,690 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 139,898 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 148,298 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 163,980 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 166,962 · +34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 42.1% · R 56.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.82%
• Current HPI: 188.1389
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B