405 N Amherst Dr · West Columbia, TX 77486

$285,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 259 Days on market

Built 2017 10,293 sqft lot $159/sqft · at area comps Est $290k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this exquisite 4 bed, 2.5 bath residence showcasing an open layout, custom cabinetry, wood grain tile, crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tray ceilings, and a built-in weather station. The master suite boasts a luxurious bath with a separate tub and shower, dual sinks, and walk-in closets. Nestled on 2 lots with a fully enclosed yard, updated fencing, and an expansive covered patio. Take in the scenic lake views from the adjacent lot. This property offers an unbeatable value and all the features you desire. Your dream home awaits!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Open layout
• Wood grain tile

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• WOOD GRAIN TILE
• CROWN MOLDING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TRAY CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($221/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in West Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $285k implies a 4141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,534
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -1.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
429 N Amherst Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-1%)	1mo	$276,500	$156	86
2337 Shalmar Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+0%)	3mo	$335,000	$186	81
10 Green Meadows Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,832 (+2%)	3mo	$325,000	$177	70
2518 Ridgewood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-8%)	3mo	$285,000	$173	64
241 Woodhaven Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (-3%)	2mo	$292,900	$169	63
425 Countryside Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-9%)	4mo	$164,900	$101	56
2554 Lakeside Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (-12%)	2mo	$278,000	$175	53
284 Mossy Meadow Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,996 (+11%)	2mo	$320,000	$160	53
229 N Amherst Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,007 (+12%)	3mo	$354,000	$176	51
2571 Pinehurst Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (+12%)	1mo	$249,000	$123	49
281 Crestview Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-12%)	2mo	$199,900	$127	47
214 Montclaire Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+10%)	1mo	$365,990	$186	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $111,984
• Equity at exit: $209,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $324,212
• Equity at exit: $408,951

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,295/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2363 Ridgewood Dr West Columbia, TX	4.0	2.5	2555	$2,700	$1.06	24d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 259 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 258 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 257 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 256 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 254 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 243 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 241 DOM
15. 2026-02-16
    price $285,000 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home to this exquisite 4 bed, 2.5 bath residence showcasing an open layout, custom cabinetry, wood grain tile, crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tray ceilings, and a built-in weather station. The master suite boasts a luxurious bath with a separate tub and shower, dual sinks, and walk-in closets. Nestled on 2 lots with a fully enclosed yard, updated fencing, and an expansive covered patio. Take in the scenic lake views from the adjacent lot. This property offers an unbeatable value and all the features you desire. Your dream home awaits!

16. 2025-11-03
    price $300,000 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home to this exquisite 4 bed, 2.5 bath residence showcasing an open layout, custom cabinetry, wood grain tile, crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tray ceilings, and a built-in weather station. The master suite boasts a luxurious bath with a separate tub and shower, dual sinks, and walk-in closets. Nestled on 2 lots with a fully enclosed yard, updated fencing, and an expansive covered patio. Take in the scenic lake views from the adjacent lot. This property offers an unbeatable value and all the features you desire. Your dream home awaits!

17. 2025-10-02
    listed $320,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome home to this exquisite 4 bed, 2.5 bath residence showcasing an open layout, custom cabinetry, wood grain tile, crown molding, stainless steel appliances, tray ceilings, and a built-in weather station. The master suite boasts a luxurious bath with a separate tub and shower, dual sinks, and walk-in closets. Nestled on 2 lots with a fully enclosed yard, updated fencing, and an expansive covered patio. Take in the scenic lake views from the adjacent lot. This property offers an unbeatable value and all the features you desire. Your dream home awaits!

18. 2024-09-29
    historical
19. 2024-09-02
    status Active
20. 2024-08-20
    status Option Pending
21. 2024-08-13
    status Active
22. 2024-08-02
    status Pending, Continue to Show
23. 2024-05-18
    price $299,500
24. 2024-05-05
    listed $310,000 Active
25. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus
27. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus
28. 2022-11-30
    status Pending
29. 2022-11-19
    status Option Pending
30. 2022-11-10
    price $279,600
31. 2022-10-24
    listed $289,600 Active
32. 2020-09-03
    soldstatus
33. 2020-08-31
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2020-08-17
    status Pending
35. 2020-08-12
    status Option Pending
36. 2020-07-20
    listed $259,900 Active
37. 2017-06-08
    soldstatus Sold
38. 2017-04-17
    status Pending, Continue to Show
39. 2017-04-15
    listed $190,000 Active
40. 2016-05-02
    soldstatus $6,720

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,295 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,295 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$5,295
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $1,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Columbia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #7954

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4141.1% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-08-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-08-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-18 Price Changed $299,500 HARMLS
• 2024-05-05 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-10 Price Changed $279,600 HARMLS
• 2022-10-24 Listed $289,600 HARMLS
• 2020-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-08-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-20 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2017-06-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-15 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2016-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $6,720 Public Records

Property tax history

+47.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,295 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.