2014 Blackthorn Dr #2014 · Champaign, IL 61821

$159,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,304 sqft · Other · 50 Days on market

Built 1977 $123/sqft · at area comps Est $158k · at est. $205/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo offers a functional layout and comfortable living spaces in a desirable setting. The main level features two spacious bedrooms, an updated full bath. A large living room with plenty of windows provides a beautiful view of the back patio and open commons area creating a peaceful, park-like backdrop. Upstairs, you'll find a private third bedroom, ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space. Additional highlights include in-unit laundry, and a detached garage. A great opportunity for low-maintenance living with space, style, and a serene outdoor setting!

Key facts

• $205 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.8% in Champaign — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#44 in IL, #902 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Champaign CUSD 4 (urban): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #333 of 620 in IL (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: International Prep Academy (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,517 of 2,056 statewide, top 78%, 568 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (math 9% / reading 18%, grade F, #535 of 665 statewide, top 81%, 738 students, 0% FRL); Centennial High School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #241 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 1,444 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,068
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 1.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,119
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $67,247
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61821

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,717/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$205
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,797

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $259	+0% $214	+5% $169	+10% $124
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $132	+0% $214	+5% $296	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $255	base $214	+0.5pp $173	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1903 Sumac Dr Champaign, IL	3.0	2.0	1742	$2,400	$1.38	45d	1	0.19mi
1915 S Mattis Ave Champaign, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,099	$2.16	15d	11	0.24mi
1603 Sandpiper Ct Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,675	$1.40	45d	1	0.35mi
2406 Leeper Dr Unit Aceves 1 Champaign, IL	2.0	1.5	950	$3,000	$3.16	15d	1	0.38mi
2332 Brookshire E Champaign, IL	3.0	1.5	1574	$2,500	$1.59	45d	1	0.45mi
1902 Meadow Dr Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	898	$1,750	$1.95	15d	1	0.79mi
1924 Melrose Dr Unit C Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	1039	$1,800	$1.73	15d	1	1.36mi
1920 Melrose Dr Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,320	$1.16	15d	1	1.37mi
1801 W John St Unit 723 Champaign, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,390	$1.16	23d	1	1.43mi
1801 W John St Unit 1821 Champaign, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,390	$1.16	15d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $205 · $2,460/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $159,900 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $159,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 31 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    price $169,900 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo offers a functional layout and comfortable living spaces in a desirable setting. The main level features two spacious bedrooms, an updated full bath. A large living room with plenty of windows provides a beautiful view of the back patio and open commons area creating a peaceful, park-like backdrop. Upstairs, you'll find a private third bedroom, ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space. Additional highlights include in-unit laundry, and a detached garage. A great opportunity for low-maintenance living with space, style, and a serene outdoor setting!

20. 2026-04-29
    listed $180,000 Active 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo offers a functional layout and comfortable living spaces in a desirable setting. The main level features two spacious bedrooms, an updated full bath. A large living room with plenty of windows provides a beautiful view of the back patio and open commons area creating a peaceful, park-like backdrop. Upstairs, you'll find a private third bedroom, ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space. Additional highlights include in-unit laundry, and a detached garage. A great opportunity for low-maintenance living with space, style, and a serene outdoor setting!

21. 2026-04-09
    historical 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo offers a functional layout and comfortable living spaces in a desirable setting. The main level features two spacious bedrooms, an updated full bath. A large living room with plenty of windows provides a beautiful view of the back patio and open commons area creating a peaceful, park-like backdrop. Upstairs, you'll find a private third bedroom, ideal for guests, a home office, or flex space. Additional highlights include in-unit laundry, and a detached garage. A great opportunity for low-maintenance living with space, style, and a serene outdoor setting!

22. 2025-12-02
    soldstatus $151,000 Closed 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    Welcome to this stylishly updated condo that combines comfort and convenience. Recent improvements include a new walk-in shower, medicine cabinet, commercial grade range hood, crown molding, wall molding, and new flooring-bringing a modern touch to every room. Nestled in a friendly, well-maintained neighborhood. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this move-in ready condo is ready for you to call home!

23. 2025-10-28
    status Pending 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    Welcome to this stylishly updated condo that combines comfort and convenience. Recent improvements include a new walk-in shower, medicine cabinet, commercial grade range hood, crown molding, wall molding, and new flooring-bringing a modern touch to every room. Nestled in a friendly, well-maintained neighborhood. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this move-in ready condo is ready for you to call home!

24. 2025-10-26
    price $169,000 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    Welcome to this stylishly updated condo that combines comfort and convenience. Recent improvements include a new walk-in shower, medicine cabinet, commercial grade range hood, crown molding, wall molding, and new flooring-bringing a modern touch to every room. Nestled in a friendly, well-maintained neighborhood. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this move-in ready condo is ready for you to call home!

25. 2025-10-21
    price $180,000 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    Welcome to this stylishly updated condo that combines comfort and convenience. Recent improvements include a new walk-in shower, medicine cabinet, commercial grade range hood, crown molding, wall molding, and new flooring-bringing a modern touch to every room. Nestled in a friendly, well-maintained neighborhood. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this move-in ready condo is ready for you to call home!

26. 2025-10-15
    price $185,000 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    Welcome to this stylishly updated condo that combines comfort and convenience. Recent improvements include a new walk-in shower, medicine cabinet, commercial grade range hood, crown molding, wall molding, and new flooring-bringing a modern touch to every room. Nestled in a friendly, well-maintained neighborhood. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this move-in ready condo is ready for you to call home!

27. 2025-09-25
    listed $189,000 Active 454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (454 chars)

    Welcome to this stylishly updated condo that combines comfort and convenience. Recent improvements include a new walk-in shower, medicine cabinet, commercial grade range hood, crown molding, wall molding, and new flooring-bringing a modern touch to every room. Nestled in a friendly, well-maintained neighborhood. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a smart investment, this move-in ready condo is ready for you to call home!

28. 2021-05-05
    soldstatus $100,500
29. 2021-04-29
    soldstatus $100,500 Closed Sale
30. 2021-04-11
    status Pending
31. 2021-04-08
    listed $92,500 New
32. 2010-06-09
    historical
33. 2010-03-10
    listed
34. 2006-02-09
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,717 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,717 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,717
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − HOA: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$63
• After-tax cash flow: $2,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Champaign CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1709420
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,797
• Composite: 21.66/100
• National rank: #8281
• State rank: #333 of 620 in IL

Livability — Champaign

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #902

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Champaign, IL
• County: Champaign County · 182,148 people
• City population: 96,852
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,611
• Household income: $70,715
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1023.0

Population outlook (Champaign County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,848 people
• By 2030: 231,416 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 244,321 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 256,432 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 285,823 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 296,406 · +32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 23% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Champaign

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.1) · D 61.3% · R 37.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.1 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+18.4 2012: D+6.8 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.19%
• Current HPI: 221.1245
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.29%
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+54.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $169,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $180,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Sold (MLS) $151,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $169,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $180,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $185,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Listed $189,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $100,500 Public Records
• 2021-04-29 Sold (MLS) $100,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-11 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-08 Listed $92,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-10 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,717 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.