511 SW 7th St · Concordia, MO 64020

$45,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1940 6,050 sqft lot $41/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all handy men, investors, and home owner occupants looking for sweat equity. This one is ready for the next owner or someone looking for their next project. Rare find for a 4 bedroom in this price point. Must see in person to envision the potential. Large, open, eat-in kitchen with a fun arched entrance. Great front room for making family memories. Large, level backyard perfect for those mid-west barbeques. Being sold as is, look into possiblity of a renovation loan for owner occupied.

Key facts

• Open eat-in kitchen
• Arched entrance
• Level backyard

Tags

• OPEN EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ARCHED ENTRANCE
• LEVEL BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $922 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#207 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Concordia R-II (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #109 of 324 in MO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $42,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.78%
• DSCR: 4.91
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,746
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -70.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 SW 7th St	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,024 (-6%)	0mo	$45,000	$44	90
507 7th St	0.06mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (+5%)	11mo	$149,900	$131	73
308 SW 7th Ter	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (+10%)	16mo	$229,500	$192	56
1216 S Saint Louis St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,208 (+11%)	2mo	$275,000	$228	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $83,232
• Equity at exit: $40,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.2%
• Equity multiple: 16.79×
• Total profit: $198,991
• Equity at exit: $87,425

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64020

• Home prices YoY: 22.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $922

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   Calling all handy men, investors, and home owner occupants looking for sweat equity. This one is ready for the next owner or someone looking for their next project. Rare find for a 4 bedroom in this price point. Must see in person to envision the potential. Large, open, eat-in kitchen with a fun arched entrance. Great front room for making family memories. Large, level backyard perfect for those mid-west barbeques. Being sold as is, look into possiblity of a renovation loan for owner occupied.

2. 2026-04-16
   price $45,000 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   Calling all handy men, investors, and home owner occupants looking for sweat equity. This one is ready for the next owner or someone looking for their next project. Rare find for a 4 bedroom in this price point. Must see in person to envision the potential. Large, open, eat-in kitchen with a fun arched entrance. Great front room for making family memories. Large, level backyard perfect for those mid-west barbeques. Being sold as is, look into possiblity of a renovation loan for owner occupied.

3. 2026-03-30
   price $49,000 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   Calling all handy men, investors, and home owner occupants looking for sweat equity. This one is ready for the next owner or someone looking for their next project. Rare find for a 4 bedroom in this price point. Must see in person to envision the potential. Large, open, eat-in kitchen with a fun arched entrance. Great front room for making family memories. Large, level backyard perfect for those mid-west barbeques. Being sold as is, look into possiblity of a renovation loan for owner occupied.

4. 2026-03-09
   listed $59,000 Active 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   Calling all handy men, investors, and home owner occupants looking for sweat equity. This one is ready for the next owner or someone looking for their next project. Rare find for a 4 bedroom in this price point. Must see in person to envision the potential. Large, open, eat-in kitchen with a fun arched entrance. Great front room for making family memories. Large, level backyard perfect for those mid-west barbeques. Being sold as is, look into possiblity of a renovation loan for owner occupied.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $10,998
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,640
• After-tax cash flow: $8,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concordia R-II
• NCES district ID: 2910080
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,584
• Composite: 36.98/100
• National rank: #4527
• State rank: #109 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concordia

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #10455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concordia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,928

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.33%
• Current HPI: 277.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-23.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $45,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $49,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $59,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $682 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.