5451 Lily Rd · Medulla, FL 33811

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,241 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 910 Days on market

Built 1959 5,049 sqft lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors looking for a Full Rehab House, In a Great area, Convenient to everything, This is a House for you!! The House is Gutted, It needs everything!!! Go See if it is the project for you. House is Close to Everything, Easy access to Main Roads. Do your due diligence before submitting an offer. NO offers will be accepted without a zero inspection period. All information is deemed reliable, but needs to be verified by buyer.

Key facts

• 5,049 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1959

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No CDD; Not homesteaded; No lease restrictions; Property is a single-family residence on approximately 0.12 acres
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Other sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One level; Faces south; Zoned R-3
• Construction: Block and other construction materials; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Trees and landscaped yard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#601 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 910 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 910 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.02%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,476
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,370
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,609 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $439	-5% $400	+0% $360	+5% $320	+10% $281
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $297	+0% $360	+5% $424	+10% $487
Rate	-1.0pp $431	-0.5pp $396	base $360	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5527 Gaur Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	942	$1,550	$1.65	24d	1	0.15mi
5133 Old Road 37 Mulberry, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,565	$1.49	4d	1	0.44mi
1089 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	764	$1,225	$1.60	4d	1	0.49mi
1143 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,299	$1.29	4d	1	0.54mi
1105 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1456	$1,400	$0.96	24d	1	0.54mi
4917 Malibu Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$1,195	$1.45	4d	1	0.71mi
1115 Dosseywood Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$1,650	$1.33	4d	1	0.91mi
1028 Harden Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	891	$1,200	$1.35	24d	1	1.01mi
1424 Bramblewood Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,700	$1.47	15d	1	1.01mi
1113 Pogonia Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$1,795	$1.27	24d	1	1.02mi
1106 Brook Meadow Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	4d	1	1.06mi
1106 Brook Meadow Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,900	$1.30	24d	1	1.06mi
1448 Marigold Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,055	$1.00	4d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 910 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 909 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 908 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 907 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 905 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 902 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 901 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 900 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 899 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 896 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 894 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 893 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 892 DOM
14. 2026-01-07
    price $140,000
15. 2025-08-18
    price $145,000
16. 2025-08-06
    price $149,000
17. 2024-06-21
    status Active
18. 2024-06-13
    historical
19. 2023-12-13
    listed $150,000 Active
20. 2022-12-21
    status Active
21. 2022-12-21
    historical
22. 2022-10-13
    status Active
23. 2022-09-23
    status Pending
24. 2022-08-18
    status Active
25. 2022-08-18
    price $130,000
26. 2022-08-15
    status Pending
27. 2022-08-15
    price $140,000
28. 2022-08-05
    price $130,000
29. 2022-07-15
    price $139,900
30. 2022-06-14
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$524
• After-tax cash flow: $3,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Medulla

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #601
• US rank: #11528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medulla, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-13 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-18 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-15 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-15 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-14 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,422 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.