2841 Citrus Lake Dr Unit K104 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$398,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Condo public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1992 $892/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Steps from the back door of this first floor Coach home, a lake-sized lake features spectacular sunsets almost every day. A few steps away sits a semi-private, sun-drenched swimming pool. All around is a quiet, tree-cooled, socially active, iconic Naples benchmark community noted for its friendly atmosphere and active social schedule. Restaurants, shopping, a major library and various activity centers are a less than mile away. The airport is half an hour up the road, famous 5th Avenue 15 minutes down the road. Just inside the gated entry there is an activity center loaded with sports facilities and a clubhouse for community wide activities. Inside the remarkable two bedroom, two baths, br

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Sports facilities
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• SEMI PRIVATE SWIMMING POOL
• GATED ENTRY
• ACTIVITY CENTER
• SPORTS FACILITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual recurring fees and specific HOA/condo fees apply (see listing for amounts and frequency)
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master HOA fee charged quarterly; Quarterly condo fee; Professional management; HOA maintenance covers cable, insurance, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, pest control (exterior), sewer, street maintenance, trash removal, water, recreation facilities, reserves, manager, legal/accounting; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, sauna, boat storage, community boat dock, basketball, bocce court, pickleball, shuffleboard, tennis courts, play area, sidewalks, and underground utilities; Gated community with tennis focus; Total annual recurring fees and one-time fees apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community; Electric storm shutters
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); Built in 1992; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Rear exposure faces north; Unit in Lakeside Carriage Homes development, unit 104
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco finish; Shingle roof; Built in 1992
• Exterior features: Sprinkler system (automatic); Tennis court; Water feature/display; Lake view; Lakefront on fresh water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range / Stove; Refrigerator with icemaker; Self-cleaning oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; First-floor bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground level; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Window coverings; Dining area adjacent to family room; Guest bathroom; Screened lanai/porch; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $398k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($523/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $398k).
• Recommended offer: $351k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 425 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,361/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $269k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $350,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-11,805
• Equity at exit: $121,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $18,620
• Equity at exit: $151,000

Cash invested: $111,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,361 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,090
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,047/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$892
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$916
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,306

Max offer price $398,500

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $156	+0% $44	+5% $-69	+10% $-182
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-129	+0% $44	+5% $216	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $145	base $44	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,625
• Closing costs: $11,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R-202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	15d	1	0.09mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	24d	1	0.09mi
2885 Citrus Lake Dr Unit N103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$5,250	$4.20	15d	1	0.10mi
2731 Citrus Lake Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,500	$1.98	15d	1	0.11mi
2880 Citrus Lake Dr Unit Q201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,495	$1.57	15d	1	0.12mi
2864 Mizzen Way Unit Y106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,200	$3.85	15d	1	0.14mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$4,500	$3.54	15d	1	0.14mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F305 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$5,500	$3.72	15d	1	0.14mi
3048 Horizon Ln #1104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$5,150	$2.83	24d	1	0.15mi
2730 Sailors Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1700	$9,000	$5.29	24d	1	0.15mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$5,250	$3.80	15d	1	0.18mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	15d	1	0.18mi
3051 Horizon Ln #1803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$5,100	$3.44	24d	1	0.19mi
7710 Ahoy Ave Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,950	$1.87	24d	1	0.20mi
2835 Mizzen Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	24d	1	0.21mi
3035 Horizon Ln #2206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$6,000	$4.82	24d	1	0.21mi
2651 Citrus Lake Dr Unit D302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,000	$4.00	15d	1	0.22mi
2611 Citrus Lake Dr Unit C-203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$5,500	$3.22	15d	1	0.25mi
7030 Lone Oak Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$6,400	$3.76	15d	1	0.28mi
3015 Horizon Ln #2702 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,790	$1.28	24d	1	0.30mi
7416 Plumbago Bridge Rd #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1223	$2,400	$1.96	15d	1	0.30mi
2608 Sailors Way #122 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1387	$5,500	$3.97	24d	1	0.32mi
2541 Citrus Lake Dr Unit A-205 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,250	$3.30	15d	1	0.32mi
2516 Orchid Bay Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$4,750	$3.49	24d	1	0.33mi
3009 Driftwood Way #2802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.37mi
3062 Driftwood Way #4301 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$6,500	$4.13	24d	1	0.37mi
2460 Old Groves Rd Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,400	$1.96	15d	1	0.40mi
3057 Driftwood Way #4004 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$6,400	$3.52	24d	1	0.41mi
7518 Silver Trumpet Ln Unit Q102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	15d	1	0.42mi
3017 Driftwood Way #3001 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$5,000	$3.61	24d	1	0.42mi
3049 Driftwood Way #3806 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$4,700	$2.59	24d	1	0.47mi
2585 Old Groves Rd Unit L203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1448	$5,500	$3.80	15d	1	0.47mi
3025 Driftwood Way #3203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$3,900	$3.12	24d	1	0.48mi
7762 Gardner Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1607	$6,000	$3.73	24d	1	0.50mi
3029 Driftwood Way #3303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$4,000	$3.21	24d	1	0.50mi
3037 Driftwood Way #3505 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	24d	1	0.52mi
2729 Branch Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,650	$2.03	24d	1	0.58mi
7822 Gardner Dr Unit 6-101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1607	$2,500	$1.56	24d	1	0.61mi
7287 Mill Pond Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$3,800	$2.80	24d	1	0.64mi
6654 Tannin Ln Unit B Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1441	$3,100	$2.15	24d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $892 · $10,704/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $398,500 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $398,500 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-02-09
   price $398,500
4. 2026-02-04
   price $382,500
5. 2026-01-14
   listed $407,000 Active
6. 2025-02-18
   historical
7. 2025-02-11
   price $395,000
8. 2025-01-10
   price $419,000
9. 2024-11-13
   listed $429,000 Active
10. 2024-02-07
    historical
11. 2024-01-20
    status Active
12. 2023-12-13
    historical
13. 2023-08-17
    listed $469,000 Active
14. 2023-07-05
    historical
15. 2023-04-05
    price $459,000
16. 2023-03-11
    price $469,000
17. 2023-02-04
    listed $485,000 Active
18. 2022-04-19
    historical
19. 2022-04-01
    listed $485,000 Active
20. 2019-01-14
    soldstatus $269,000
21. 2019-01-10
    soldstatus $269,000 Sold
22. 2019-01-02
    status Pending
23. 2018-11-29
    status Pending With Contingencies
24. 2018-11-02
    listed $279,000 Active
25. 2015-09-28
    soldstatus $239,900 Sold
26. 2015-09-28
    soldstatus $239,900
27. 2015-08-17
    historical
28. 2015-08-07
    listed $239,900 Active
29. 2005-06-03
    soldstatus $293,000
30. 2003-09-23
    soldstatus $153,000
31. 1992-11-01
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,047 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,308 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$260/yr (+$22/mo · 8.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,322
• − Property taxes: −$3,047
• − Insurance: −$1,992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,187
• − Management: −$4,187
• − HOA: −$10,704
• − Depreciation: −$11,593
• Taxable loss: −$5,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,368
• After-tax cash flow: $1,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+246.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $398,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $382,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $407,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-18 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $395,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $419,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-11-13 Listed $429,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-02-07 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-01-20 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-12-13 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-08-17 Listed $469,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-07-05 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-04-05 Price Changed $459,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-03-11 Price Changed $469,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-02-04 Listed $485,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-04-19 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-04-01 Listed $485,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $269,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-10 Sold (MLS) $269,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2019-01-02 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2018-11-29 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2018-11-02 Listed $279,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $239,900 Public Records
• 2015-09-28 Sold (MLS) $239,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-08-17 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2015-08-07 Listed $239,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2005-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $293,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,047 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.