4107 Merlet Dr · Pearland, TX 77584

$286,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,513 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2002 6,298 sqft lot $189/sqft · at area comps Est $293k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean, Cute & Move in ready!! Nice, maintained & recent updates! Split plan w/ Large family room w/ corner fireplace and high ceilings. Carpet replaced 08/2011 throughout home. Large restful, Away-from-street Master suite w/ great walk in closet, Master bath features double sinks, jacuzzi tub & seperate shower. Two nice bedrooms & bath off first hallway. Low maintenance back yard! Updates include paint, carpet, travertine tile around tub second bath. Refrigerator, washer & dryer stay! Call Today!

Key facts

• Large living area
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE BACKYARD
• A/C REPLACEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Goodwin & Co; Annual association fee of $243

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2002; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fence (back yard); Backs to greenbelt/park; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 12 x 15); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 8); Bathroom on first floor (approx. 5 x 8)
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1); Double vanity; High ceilings; Jetted tub; Laminate counters; Separate shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Utility room on first floor (approx. 6 x 3.5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pearland J H South (math 56% / reading 58%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 895 students, 52% FRL); Pearland H S (math 58% / reading 64%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 3,261 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,123 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,327
• List price: $286,500
• Delta: -2.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4110 Cleburne Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	1mo	$295,000	$195	92
4113 Cleburne Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	9mo	$319,000	$211	83
4109 Seminole Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,513 (0%)	22mo	$299,900	$198	76
3911 Spring Circle Dr W	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+13%)	3mo	$335,000	$196	60
4101 Seminole Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,724 (+14%)	17mo	$305,000	$177	58
4016 Spring Brook Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-7%)	23mo	$242,500	$173	52
4010 Spring Forest Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+13%)	24mo	$310,000	$181	47
4002 Fernwood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+13%)	14mo	$320,000	$188	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-61,934
• Equity at exit: $42,718

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-83,666
• Equity at exit: $24,771

Cash invested: $80,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77584

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 497
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,502
• Tax from tax record: −$513 /mo · $6,153/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,727

Max offer price $253,560

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,625
• Closing costs: $8,595
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4009 Spring Forest Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	1976	$2,700	$1.37	1d	1	0.16mi
6207 Winter Oak St Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	1884	$2,340	$1.24	11d	1	1.04mi
3610 Kale St Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,140	$1.27	18d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $286,500 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $286,500 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $286,500 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $286,500 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $286,500 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $286,500 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $286,500 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $286,500 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $286,500 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $286,500 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $286,500 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $286,500 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $286,500 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $295,000 Active 817-char remark
15. 2012-01-25
    soldstatus
16. 2012-01-24
    soldstatus 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Clean, Cute & Move in ready!! Nice, maintained & recent updates! Split plan w/ Large family room w/ corner fireplace and high ceilings. Carpet replaced 08/2011 throughout home. Large restful, Away-from-street Master suite w/ great walk in closet, Master bath features double sinks, jacuzzi tub & seperate shower. Two nice bedrooms & bath off first hallway. Low maintenance back yard! Updates include paint, carpet, travertine tile around tub second bath. Refrigerator, washer & dryer stay! Call Today!

17. 2011-12-13
    historical 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Clean, Cute & Move in ready!! Nice, maintained & recent updates! Split plan w/ Large family room w/ corner fireplace and high ceilings. Carpet replaced 08/2011 throughout home. Large restful, Away-from-street Master suite w/ great walk in closet, Master bath features double sinks, jacuzzi tub & seperate shower. Two nice bedrooms & bath off first hallway. Low maintenance back yard! Updates include paint, carpet, travertine tile around tub second bath. Refrigerator, washer & dryer stay! Call Today!

18. 2011-08-30
    listed $124,900 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Clean, Cute & Move in ready!! Nice, maintained & recent updates! Split plan w/ Large family room w/ corner fireplace and high ceilings. Carpet replaced 08/2011 throughout home. Large restful, Away-from-street Master suite w/ great walk in closet, Master bath features double sinks, jacuzzi tub & seperate shower. Two nice bedrooms & bath off first hallway. Low maintenance back yard! Updates include paint, carpet, travertine tile around tub second bath. Refrigerator, washer & dryer stay! Call Today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,153 · $513/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,153 · $513/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,048
• − Property taxes: −$6,153
• − Insurance: −$1,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,392
• − Management: −$2,392
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$8,335
• Taxable loss: −$7,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,703
• After-tax cash flow: $-534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearland, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 91,065
• Household income: $121,872
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 21% Black 21% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 14% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.09%
• Current HPI: 213.4011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+129.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $286,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2012-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-01-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-12-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-08-30 Listed $124,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,153 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.