280 Road 5504 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$127,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 10,454 sqft lot $137/sqft · 18% above area Est $108k · 18% over $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming, manufactured home. 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, open floor plan that combines the living area, kitchen and dining. Situated on 1/4-acre lot, fully fenced with automatic gate for added privacy. Extended cover patio for outdoor entertaining, beautiful back yard for the family and pets. Located just minutes from Grand Parkway TX-99, this beautiful country feel property can be yours. Schedule your showing today. (Washer/Dryer included)

Key facts

• Beautiful back yard
• Open floor plan
• Fully fenced

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY FENCED
• AUTOMATIC GATE
• EXTENDED COVER PATIO
• BEAUTIFUL BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $127k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,380 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.82%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,754
• List price: $127,000
• Delta: 17.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,693
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $45,721
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	15d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $127,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,000 Pending 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,000 Pending 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,000 Pending 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,000 Pending 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $127,000 Pending 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $127,000 Pending 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $127,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    price $127,000 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Welcome to this charming, manufactured home. 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, open floor plan that combines the living area, kitchen and dining. Situated on 1/4-acre lot, fully fenced with automatic gate for added privacy. Extended cover patio for outdoor entertaining, beautiful back yard for the family and pets. Located just minutes from Grand Parkway TX-99, this beautiful country feel property can be yours. Schedule your showing today. (Washer/Dryer included)

13. 2026-04-04
    listed $130,000 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Welcome to this charming, manufactured home. 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, open floor plan that combines the living area, kitchen and dining. Situated on 1/4-acre lot, fully fenced with automatic gate for added privacy. Extended cover patio for outdoor entertaining, beautiful back yard for the family and pets. Located just minutes from Grand Parkway TX-99, this beautiful country feel property can be yours. Schedule your showing today. (Washer/Dryer included)

14. 2026-02-20
    historical
15. 2026-01-29
    price $132,000
16. 2025-11-21
    listed $135,000 Active
17. 2025-07-31
    historical
18. 2025-05-21
    listed $119,900 Active
19. 2025-05-21
    historical
20. 2025-02-07
    listed $127,000 Active
21. 2025-01-21
    historical
22. 2024-12-29
    price $129,000
23. 2024-11-06
    listed $135,000 Active
24. 2024-10-18
    historical
25. 2024-09-30
    price $132,000
26. 2024-07-23
    price $147,500
27. 2024-06-21
    price $169,500
28. 2024-05-07
    listed $175,000 Active
29. 2024-01-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,506/yr (+$125/mo · 184.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$1,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable income: $2,974
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$714
• After-tax cash flow: $4,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a fenced yard and an automatic gate for privacy. Minor updates like landscaping and painting can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look newer
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look newer ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $127,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $132,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $127,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-29 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $132,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $147,500 HARMLS
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $169,500 HARMLS
• 2024-05-07 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $818 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.