Somervell Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$201,490

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily · 641 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make yourself at home in the Somervell floorplan. This single-story home boasts 1,088 square feet and features 2 spacious bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and an attached 2-car garage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 640 days

🏗️ New construction. The $201,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $233,962.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $201k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2366 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 641 days — a 12% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 641 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,962
• List price: $201,490
• Delta: -13.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
929 Oak Mist Ln	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+1%)	20mo	$229,990	$209	47
909 Oak Mist Ln	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,133 (+4%)	19mo	$234,990	$207	44
346 Pickwick Gardens Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,191 (+10%)	14mo	$210,000	$176	42
131 Sterling River Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+15%)	17mo	$222,370	$178	22
127 Reese Ravine Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+15%)	22mo	$201,875	$162	20
119 Sterling River Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+15%)	20mo	$213,450	$171	19
108 Reese Ravine Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+15%)	23mo	$205,975	$165	18
120 Reese Ravine Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+15%)	24mo	$214,875	$172	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $107,272
• Equity at exit: $210,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $319,955
• Equity at exit: $454,537

Cash invested: $65,509 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $210,000 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 2366
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,227
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$292 /mo · $3,509/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,047

Max offer price $198,484

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-164	+0% $-245	+5% $-326	+10% $-407
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-314	+0% $-245	+5% $-177	+10% $-108
Rate	-1.0pp $-127	-0.5pp $-186	base $-245	+0.5pp $-306	+1.0pp $-367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,491
• Closing costs: $7,019
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
399 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,535	$1.05	2d	1	0.36mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,681	$1.28	36d	1	0.40mi
640 Magnolia Creek Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,800	$1.27	10d	1	0.54mi
640 Magnolia Creek Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,800	$1.27	65d	1	0.54mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	146d	1	0.57mi
355 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,745	$1.30	115d	1	0.57mi
355 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,745	$1.30	112d	1	0.57mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	184d	1	0.68mi
913 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,750	$1.48	56d	1	0.71mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	165d	1	0.77mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	1d	1	0.77mi
16000 Audubon Park Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,003	$2.02	0d	21	0.89mi
811 Cloyd Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	3d	11	1.31mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $201,490 Active 641 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $201,490 Active 640 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $201,490 Active 639 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $201,490 Active 638 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $201,490 Active 637 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $201,490 Active 635 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $201,490 Active 634 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $201,490 Active 633 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $201,490 Active 632 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $201,490 Active 631 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $201,490 Active 630 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $201,490 Active 629 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $201,490 Active 628 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $201,490 Active 627 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $201,490 Active 626 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $201,490 Active 625 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $201,490 Active 624 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $201,490 Active 623 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $201,490 Active 622 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $201,490 Active 621 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $201,490 Active 620 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $201,490 Active 619 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $201,490 Active 618 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $201,490 Active 617 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $201,490 Active 616 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $201,490 Active 615 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $201,490 Active 614 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $201,490 Active 613 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $201,490 Active 612 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $201,490 Active 611 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $201,490 Active 610 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $201,490 Active 609 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $201,490 Active 608 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $201,490 Active 607 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $201,490 Active 606 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $201,490 Active 605 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $201,490 Active 604 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $201,490 Active 603 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $201,490 Active 602 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $201,490 Active 601 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $201,490 Active 600 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $201,490 Active 599 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $201,490 Active 598 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $201,490 Active 597 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $201,490 Active 596 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $201,490 Active 595 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $201,490 Active 594 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $201,490 Active 593 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $201,490 Active 592 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $201,490 Active 591 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,106
• − Property taxes: −$3,509
• − Insurance: −$1,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$6,806
• Taxable loss: −$7,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,701
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Magnolia, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's appeal and marketability, especially for tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Willie E Williams El F TX #1,269/4,322 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 Middle Magnolia J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $201,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $200,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $200,490 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $199,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-06 Listed $200,490 Zillow