2405 Keene St · Houston, TX 77009

$369,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1939 2,748 sqft lot $165/sqft · 19% below area Est $459k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A brilliant total renovation and expansion completed in 2019 of a circa 1939 home in Houston’s certified hotspot for urban revitalization. The generous living space is laid out in open yet defined spaces with finishes and inspiration that strike the perfect balance between rustic and refined (think island kitchen with exposed shiplap ceiling). Updated with all of the creature comforts and amenities that matter most to us after a hard day’s work, like a soaking tub and low-maintenance lot and rare first floor owner’s suite. Here, the entire Greater Northside area is your backyard: Woodland Park, 1 block away from Quitman Station MetroRail Red Line to Downtown/Midtown/MedCenter, close to Community Center and access to the White Oak Bayou Greenway that connects to virtually all of inner loop Houston’s vast greenspace. Experience the next generation of the Near Northside in style and comfort, with the best of the past intact!

Key facts

• Woodland park
• 2,748 sq ft lot
• Built 1939

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR OWNERS SUITE
• WOODLAND PARK
• WHITE OAK BAYOU GREENWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $370k).
• Recommended offer: $348k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 595 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,637/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 994% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $458,874
• List price: $369,900
• Delta: -19.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2405 Freeman St	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,336 (+4%)	2mo	$425,000	$182	81
711 Boundary St	0.18mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,447 (+9%)	1mo	$439,000	$179	66
1706 Freeman Freeman St	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,207 (-1%)	1mo	$469,000	$213	64
824 Morris St	0.23mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,975 (-12%)	2mo	$438,000	$222	59
518 Byrne St	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,344 (+5%)	2mo	$1,220,000	$520	57
3006 Houston Ave	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,994 (-11%)	2mo	$995,000	$499	54
1909 Hickory St	0.59mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,345 (+5%)	3mo	$419,900	$179	53
1511 Alamo St	0.59mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,397 (+7%)	1mo	$499,999	$209	50
414 Woodland St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,365 (+6%)	3mo	$1,100,000	$465	50
1920 Fulton St	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,915 (-14%)	2mo	$399,000	$208	49
1719 Gentry St	0.60mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,000 (-11%)	1mo	$269,000	$135	47
1702 Shearn St	0.75mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,465 (+10%)	3mo	$549,000	$223	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-19,666
• Equity at exit: $55,153

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $9,417
• Equity at exit: $31,982

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77009

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$786 /mo · $9,437/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$974
• Net cashflow: $783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,646

Max offer price $369,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2403 Everett St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2093	$2,800	$1.34	43d	1	0.18mi
410 James St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$6,750	$4.21	43d	1	0.40mi
410 James St Unit 1031793P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$7,554	$4.74	15d	1	0.40mi
1625 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	994	$2,354	$2.37	3d	42	0.63mi
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	19d	1	0.66mi
2114 Sabine St Unit 1257735P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2594	$6,588	$2.54	43d	1	0.71mi
2114 Sabine St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2020	$3,200	$1.58	43d	1	0.71mi
2018 Crockett St Unit 1029793P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2507	$6,482	$2.59	5d	1	0.96mi
2018 Crockett St Unit 2018 Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2514	$8,000	$3.18	43d	1	0.96mi
401 Walton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2112	$2,500	$1.18	14d	1	1.05mi
1116 Woodland St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2400	$4,000	$1.67	43d	1	1.27mi
1039 Hillstar St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	11d	1	1.28mi
414 Milam St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$9,230	$3.81	13d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 447 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$8,991	$3.71	10d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 447 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$8,973	$3.71	43d	1	1.36mi
414 Milam St Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2421	$8,959	$3.70	2d	1	1.36mi
4605 Fisk St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$3,000	$1.84	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $369,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $379,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $379,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    price $389,900 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    A brilliant total renovation and expansion completed in 2019 of a circa 1939 home in Houston’s certified hotspot for urban revitalization. The generous living space is laid out in open yet defined spaces with finishes and inspiration that strike the perfect balance between rustic and refined (think island kitchen with exposed shiplap ceiling). Updated with all of the creature comforts and amenities that matter most to us after a hard day’s work, like a soaking tub and low-maintenance lot and rare first floor owner’s suite. Here, the entire Greater Northside area is your backyard: Woodland Park, 1 block away from Quitman Station MetroRail Red Line to Downtown/Midtown/MedCenter, close to Community Center and access to the White Oak Bayou Greenway that connects to virtually all of inner loop Houston’s vast greenspace. Experience the next generation of the Near Northside in style and comfort, with the best of the past intact!

13. 2026-05-01
    price $399,900 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    A brilliant total renovation and expansion completed in 2019 of a circa 1939 home in Houston’s certified hotspot for urban revitalization. The generous living space is laid out in open yet defined spaces with finishes and inspiration that strike the perfect balance between rustic and refined (think island kitchen with exposed shiplap ceiling). Updated with all of the creature comforts and amenities that matter most to us after a hard day’s work, like a soaking tub and low-maintenance lot and rare first floor owner’s suite. Here, the entire Greater Northside area is your backyard: Woodland Park, 1 block away from Quitman Station MetroRail Red Line to Downtown/Midtown/MedCenter, close to Community Center and access to the White Oak Bayou Greenway that connects to virtually all of inner loop Houston’s vast greenspace. Experience the next generation of the Near Northside in style and comfort, with the best of the past intact!

14. 2026-04-20
    price $409,900 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    A brilliant total renovation and expansion completed in 2019 of a circa 1939 home in Houston’s certified hotspot for urban revitalization. The generous living space is laid out in open yet defined spaces with finishes and inspiration that strike the perfect balance between rustic and refined (think island kitchen with exposed shiplap ceiling). Updated with all of the creature comforts and amenities that matter most to us after a hard day’s work, like a soaking tub and low-maintenance lot and rare first floor owner’s suite. Here, the entire Greater Northside area is your backyard: Woodland Park, 1 block away from Quitman Station MetroRail Red Line to Downtown/Midtown/MedCenter, close to Community Center and access to the White Oak Bayou Greenway that connects to virtually all of inner loop Houston’s vast greenspace. Experience the next generation of the Near Northside in style and comfort, with the best of the past intact!

15. 2026-03-28
    listed $425,000 Active 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    A brilliant total renovation and expansion completed in 2019 of a circa 1939 home in Houston’s certified hotspot for urban revitalization. The generous living space is laid out in open yet defined spaces with finishes and inspiration that strike the perfect balance between rustic and refined (think island kitchen with exposed shiplap ceiling). Updated with all of the creature comforts and amenities that matter most to us after a hard day’s work, like a soaking tub and low-maintenance lot and rare first floor owner’s suite. Here, the entire Greater Northside area is your backyard: Woodland Park, 1 block away from Quitman Station MetroRail Red Line to Downtown/Midtown/MedCenter, close to Community Center and access to the White Oak Bayou Greenway that connects to virtually all of inner loop Houston’s vast greenspace. Experience the next generation of the Near Northside in style and comfort, with the best of the past intact!

16. 2026-03-28
    historical

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    A brilliant total renovation and expansion completed in 2019 of a circa 1939 home in Houston’s certified hotspot for urban revitalization. The generous living space is laid out in open yet defined spaces with finishes and inspiration that strike the perfect balance between rustic and refined (think island kitchen with exposed shiplap ceiling). Updated with all of the creature comforts and amenities that matter most to us after a hard day’s work, like a soaking tub and low-maintenance lot and rare first floor owner’s suite. Here, the entire Greater Northside area is your backyard: Woodland Park, 1 block away from Quitman Station MetroRail Red Line to Downtown/Midtown/MedCenter, close to Community Center and access to the White Oak Bayou Greenway that connects to virtually all of inner loop Houston’s vast greenspace. Experience the next generation of the Near Northside in style and comfort, with the best of the past intact!

17. 2026-01-01
    status Active
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-12-17
    price $425,000
20. 2025-10-30
    price $459,900
21. 2025-07-16
    price $465,250
22. 2025-05-15
    listed $473,300 Active
23. 2019-03-25
    soldstatus
24. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2019-02-28
    status Pending
26. 2019-02-18
    status Option Pending
27. 2018-12-18
    price $324,900
28. 2018-11-08
    price $349,900
29. 2018-10-23
    price $374,900
30. 2018-10-12
    listed $395,000 Active
31. 2018-10-11
    historical
32. 2018-09-30
    price $395,000
33. 2018-09-22
    price $409,000
34. 2018-08-17
    listed $439,000 Active
35. 2018-08-01
    historical
36. 2018-06-26
    price $479,000
37. 2018-06-23
    status Active
38. 2018-06-22
    status Pending, Continue to Show
39. 2018-06-22
    status Active
40. 2018-06-22
    status Option Pending
41. 2018-05-21
    listed $494,900 Active
42. 2017-04-03
    soldstatus
43. 2017-03-30
    soldstatus Sold
44. 2017-03-23
    status Pending
45. 2017-03-17
    status Option Pending
46. 2017-03-13
    listed $112,500 Active
47. 1992-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,437 · $786/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,437 · $786/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$9,437
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,452
• − Management: −$4,452
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable income: $3,975
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$954
• After-tax cash flow: $8,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,769
• Household income: $83,148
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.57%
• Current HPI: 219.5037
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+246.6% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $389,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $409,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $459,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $465,250 HARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $473,300 HARMLS
• 2019-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-02-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-12-18 Price Changed $324,900 HARMLS
• 2018-11-08 Price Changed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2018-10-23 Price Changed $374,900 HARMLS
• 2018-10-12 Listed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2018-10-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-09-30 Price Changed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2018-09-22 Price Changed $409,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-17 Listed $439,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-06-26 Price Changed $479,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-06-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-06-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-05-21 Listed $494,900 HARMLS
• 2017-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-03-13 Listed $112,500 HARMLS
• 1992-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,437 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.