234 Grab Nickell Hl · Morehead, KY 40351

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2001 1.00 ac lot $98/sqft · 17% below area Est $200k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, kitchen/dining combo, living room, utility room, and more and situated on .75 acre lot in peaceful area.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• One acre lot
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY EN SUITE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ONE ACRE LOT
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Total building area approximately 1,680
• Exterior features: Block foundation; Metal roof; Vinyl siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Propane heating (leased tank); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Primary suite on the first floor; Ceiling fan(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on the main level; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Morehead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#345 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, housing D.
• Rowan County (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #74 of 165 in KY (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Rowan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rowan County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $137k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,935 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,514
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -17.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,204
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,584
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40351

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $726/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $291	-5% $245	+0% $198	+5% $151	+10% $104
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $138	+0% $198	+5% $257	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $240	base $198	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Active 660-char remark
2. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 660-char remark
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $165,000 Active 660-char remark
4. 2021-07-29
   soldstatus $136,900
5. 2016-09-30
   soldstatus $80,000
6. 2014-05-22
   soldstatus $72,500
7. 2014-05-16
   soldstatus $72,500 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Unique home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, kitchen/dining combo, living room, utility room, and more and situated on .75 acre lot in peaceful area.

8. 2014-03-11
   historical 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Unique home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, kitchen/dining combo, living room, utility room, and more and situated on .75 acre lot in peaceful area.

9. 2013-09-10
   listed $78,900 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Unique home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, kitchen/dining combo, living room, utility room, and more and situated on .75 acre lot in peaceful area.

10. 2009-11-28
    historical
11. 2009-05-28
    listed $97,500
12. 2009-04-21
    historical
13. 2008-10-21
    listed $97,500
14. 2006-08-24
    soldstatus $83,000
15. 2006-08-24
    soldstatus $83,000
16. 2006-07-28
    historical
17. 2006-03-04
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $726 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 95.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$726
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$91
• After-tax cash flow: $2,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rowan County
• NCES district ID: 2105100
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,139
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6742
• State rank: #74 of 165 in KY

Livability — Morehead

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #16479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rowan County · 22,322 people
• City population: 22,322
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 22,322
• Household income: $51,835
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 589.0

Population outlook (Rowan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,518 people
• By 2030: 29,242 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 32,949 · +19.7%
• By 2050: 37,128 · +34.9%
• By 2075: 49,130 · +78.5%
• By 2100: 59,014 · +114.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rowan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.3% · R 63.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 2.0pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+21.0 2016: R+21.3 2012: R+7.8 2008: D+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.28%
• Current HPI: 203.0786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+94.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-09 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $165,000 ImagineMLS
• 2021-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $136,900 Public Records
• 2016-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2014-05-16 Sold (MLS) $72,500 ImagineMLS
• 2014-03-11 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2013-09-10 Listed $78,900 ImagineMLS
• 2009-11-28 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2009-05-28 Listed $97,500 ImagineMLS
• 2009-04-21 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2008-10-21 Listed $97,500 ImagineMLS
• 2006-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-24 Sold (MLS) $83,000 ImagineMLS
• 2006-07-28 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2006-03-04 Listed $84,900 ImagineMLS