431 Laurel Timbers Dr · Houston, TX 77339

$180,749

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2005 5,248 sqft lot $135/sqft · 18% below area Est $219k · 18% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home! Located in the desirable Lakewood Cove section of Kingwood. Enjoy comfortable living in an established, tree-lined community. This well-maintained single-family home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathroom, and a guest half bath. The home sits on a generously sized lot with room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or play. Conveniently located near parks, greenbelt trails, shopping, dining, and major roadways, residents enjoy the perfect blend of neighborhood charm and accessibility. Located in “The Livable Forest,” this home provides a peaceful setting with easy access to all that Kingwood and the greater Houston area have to offer. Bonus brand new HVAC system.

Key facts

• Greenbelt trails
• Generously sized lot
• Outdoor space

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• GREENBELT TRAILS
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $181k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($888/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $181k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $862 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $157k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,481 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,295
• List price: $180,749
• Delta: -17.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
431 Laurel Timbers Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,336 (0%)	1mo	$180,749	$135	97
407 Laurel Pine Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+4%)	5mo	$230,000	$165	85
414 Laurel Sage Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,381 (+3%)	8mo	$215,000	$156	83
430 Laurel Timbers Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+4%)	12mo	$225,000	$161	81
22210 Laurel Pine Cir	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+4%)	11mo	$219,000	$157	81
22306 Rustic Bridge Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-5%)	12mo	$220,000	$173	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,878
• Equity at exit: $56,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $12,043
• Equity at exit: $71,897

Cash invested: $50,610 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77339

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$948
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,405/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $180,749

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $125	+0% $74	+5% $23	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $0	+0% $74	+5% $148	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $120	base $74	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,187
• Closing costs: $5,422
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 Laurel Sage Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	1744	$2,000	$1.15	0d	1	0.10mi
1615 Trail Oaks Ct Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,825	$1.20	18d	1	0.30mi
1540 Forest Cove Dr Unit KCY Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,558	$1.55	6d	1	0.62mi
938 Kingwood Dr Unit 2112 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,508	$1.45	0d	1	0.98mi
938 Kingwood Dr Unit 975 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,548	$1.49	11d	1	0.98mi
938 Kingwood Dr Unit 995 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,416	$1.36	45d	1	0.98mi
938 Kingwood Dr Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,674	$1.53	45d	1	0.98mi
938 Kingwood Dr Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,674	$1.53	21d	1	0.98mi
938 Kingwood Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,765	$1.89	45d	44	1.03mi
2302 Ladbrook Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,399	$2.34	0d	4	1.44mi
21476 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,899	$1.08	0d	1	1.45mi
21476 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,899	$1.08	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! Located in the desirable Lakewood Cove section of Kingwood. Enjoy comfortable living in an established, tree-lined community. This well-maintained single-family home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathroom, and a guest half bath. The home sits on a generously sized lot with room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or play. Conveniently located near parks, greenbelt trails, shopping, dining, and major roadways, residents enjoy the perfect blend of neighborhood charm and accessibility. Located in “The Livable Forest,” this home provides a peaceful setting with easy access to all that Kingwood and the greater Houston area have to offer. Bonus brand new HVAC system.

2. 2026-04-27
   status Active 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! Located in the desirable Lakewood Cove section of Kingwood. Enjoy comfortable living in an established, tree-lined community. This well-maintained single-family home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathroom, and a guest half bath. The home sits on a generously sized lot with room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or play. Conveniently located near parks, greenbelt trails, shopping, dining, and major roadways, residents enjoy the perfect blend of neighborhood charm and accessibility. Located in “The Livable Forest,” this home provides a peaceful setting with easy access to all that Kingwood and the greater Houston area have to offer. Bonus brand new HVAC system.

3. 2026-04-25
   historical Active Under Contract 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! Located in the desirable Lakewood Cove section of Kingwood. Enjoy comfortable living in an established, tree-lined community. This well-maintained single-family home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathroom, and a guest half bath. The home sits on a generously sized lot with room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or play. Conveniently located near parks, greenbelt trails, shopping, dining, and major roadways, residents enjoy the perfect blend of neighborhood charm and accessibility. Located in “The Livable Forest,” this home provides a peaceful setting with easy access to all that Kingwood and the greater Houston area have to offer. Bonus brand new HVAC system.

4. 2026-04-07
   price $180,749 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! Located in the desirable Lakewood Cove section of Kingwood. Enjoy comfortable living in an established, tree-lined community. This well-maintained single-family home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathroom, and a guest half bath. The home sits on a generously sized lot with room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or play. Conveniently located near parks, greenbelt trails, shopping, dining, and major roadways, residents enjoy the perfect blend of neighborhood charm and accessibility. Located in “The Livable Forest,” this home provides a peaceful setting with easy access to all that Kingwood and the greater Houston area have to offer. Bonus brand new HVAC system.

5. 2026-03-18
   price $189,926 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! Located in the desirable Lakewood Cove section of Kingwood. Enjoy comfortable living in an established, tree-lined community. This well-maintained single-family home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathroom, and a guest half bath. The home sits on a generously sized lot with room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or play. Conveniently located near parks, greenbelt trails, shopping, dining, and major roadways, residents enjoy the perfect blend of neighborhood charm and accessibility. Located in “The Livable Forest,” this home provides a peaceful setting with easy access to all that Kingwood and the greater Houston area have to offer. Bonus brand new HVAC system.

6. 2026-02-17
   price $200,000 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! Located in the desirable Lakewood Cove section of Kingwood. Enjoy comfortable living in an established, tree-lined community. This well-maintained single-family home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathroom, and a guest half bath. The home sits on a generously sized lot with room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or play. Conveniently located near parks, greenbelt trails, shopping, dining, and major roadways, residents enjoy the perfect blend of neighborhood charm and accessibility. Located in “The Livable Forest,” this home provides a peaceful setting with easy access to all that Kingwood and the greater Houston area have to offer. Bonus brand new HVAC system.

7. 2026-02-04
   listed $220,000 Active 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to your new home! Located in the desirable Lakewood Cove section of Kingwood. Enjoy comfortable living in an established, tree-lined community. This well-maintained single-family home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathroom, and a guest half bath. The home sits on a generously sized lot with room to enjoy outdoor space, gardening, or play. Conveniently located near parks, greenbelt trails, shopping, dining, and major roadways, residents enjoy the perfect blend of neighborhood charm and accessibility. Located in “The Livable Forest,” this home provides a peaceful setting with easy access to all that Kingwood and the greater Houston area have to offer. Bonus brand new HVAC system.

8. 2004-09-08
   soldstatus $156,879
9. 2004-09-08
   soldstatus $1,603,120

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,405 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,405 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,125
• − Property taxes: −$4,405
• − Insurance: −$904
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,258
• Taxable loss: −$1,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $1,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,538
• Household income: $84,102
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2198.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 233.4147
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.59%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $180,749 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $189,926 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2004-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $1,603,120 Public Records
• 2004-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $156,879 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,405 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.