604 E 31st St · Baltimore, MD 21218

$215,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Townhouse public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1920 $132/sqft · 34% below area Est $239k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location Location Location! 5 rooms and 2 bathrooms Fully renovated including New Roof. Upper level has an additional approx 350 SF finished sq ft not included in the tax record. Attractive location. Quiet dead-end street Excellent neighbors. Close to everything you need. All offers are welcome!

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• New roof
• Attractive location

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• NEW ROOF
• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• ATTRACTIVE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,667/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 2564% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $215k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.14%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,859
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -9.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1004 E 36th St	0.52mi	5/2.5	1,550 (-5%)	7mo	$370,000	$239	60
912 E 36th St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (+6%)	7mo	$335,000	$195	56
305 Whitridge Ave	0.38mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,694 (+4%)	14mo	$220,000	$130	56
312 E 25th St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-4%)	12mo	$160,000	$103	52
3314 Ellerslie Ave	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	1,440 (-11%)	6mo	$339,000	$235	49
324 E University Pkwy	0.29mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,809 (+11%)	14mo	$380,000	$210	49
761 E 36th St	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,765 (+9%)	13mo	$148,000	$84	46
711 Venable Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-15%)	15mo	$255,000	$184	45
3938 Frisby St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (+5%)	10mo	$257,000	$150	43
100 W 27th St	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,540 (-5%)	13mo	$369,900	$240	41
3812 Kimble Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+11%)	12mo	$269,900	$150	34
2430 Barclay St	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,800 (+11%)	15mo	$240,000	$133	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,706
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $49,489
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21218

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,166/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $831	-5% $770	+0% $709	+5% $649	+10% $588
Rent	-10% $499	-5% $604	+0% $709	+5% $815	+10% $920
Rate	-1.0pp $818	-0.5pp $764	base $709	+0.5pp $654	+1.0pp $597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
348 E University Pkwy Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1809	$2,400	$1.33	44d	1	0.24mi
3010 Guilford Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.5	2174	$3,980	$1.83	11d	1	0.26mi
420 E 28th St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.5	1600	$2,600	$1.62	5d	1	0.26mi
3222 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1550	$1,950	$1.26	44d	1	0.30mi
3421 University Pl Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.0	1960	$3,500	$1.79	24d	1	0.33mi
312 E 25th St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1960	$2,800	$1.43	44d	1	0.57mi
2641 N Howard St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1344	$2,800	$2.08	24d	1	0.70mi
7 W 24th St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.5	1443	$2,395	$1.66	21d	1	0.81mi
305 W 31st St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,499	$1.67	44d	1	0.82mi
513 E 41st St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1620	$1,900	$1.17	44d	1	0.92mi
719 E 20th St Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.0	2060	$2,400	$1.17	2d	1	0.94mi
719 E 20th St Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.5	2060	$3,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.94mi
1333 E North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1860	$2,200	$1.18	24d	1	1.10mi
3348 Chestnut Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1702	$3,200	$1.88	24d	1	1.11mi
706 E 43rd St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1596	$1,899	$1.19	2d	1	1.12mi
2045 E 31st St Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.0	2200	$895	$0.41	24d	1	1.22mi
1511 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1988	$2,650	$1.33	5d	1	1.24mi
531 Willow Ave Unit Na Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	21d	1	1.29mi
1814 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	24d	1	1.37mi
1617 Argonne Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $215,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-01-14
    listed $215,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Location Location Location! 5 rooms and 2 bathrooms Fully renovated including New Roof. Upper level has an additional approx 350 SF finished sq ft not included in the tax record. Attractive location. Quiet dead-end street Excellent neighbors. Close to everything you need. All offers are welcome!

15. 2026-01-14
    historical

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Location Location Location! 5 rooms and 2 bathrooms Fully renovated including New Roof. Upper level has an additional approx 350 SF finished sq ft not included in the tax record. Attractive location. Quiet dead-end street Excellent neighbors. Close to everything you need. All offers are welcome!

16. 2026-01-12
    status Active
17. 2025-12-27
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2025-11-14
    price $215,000
19. 2025-10-29
    listed $219,000 Active
20. 2024-01-31
    soldstatus $62,000
21. 1995-08-25
    soldstatus $40,000
22. 1995-07-14
    soldstatus $40,000
23. 1995-05-10
    historical
24. 1995-04-11
    listed $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,166 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$89/yr (+$7/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,166
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $5,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $7,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 44,014
• Household income: $62,488
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2564.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.14%
• Current HPI: 292.3986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+437.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-27 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $219,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1995-07-14 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MRIS
• 1995-05-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 1995-04-11 Listed $40,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,166 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.