519 Old Route 23 · Cairo, NY 12405

$39,900

4 bd · None ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily · 114 Days on market

Built 1890 Poor condition 6,098 sqft lot $27/sqft · 85% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell and in need of full renovation (see photos). This house sits in the hamlet of Acra not far from the Catskill Mountains and all there is to do there, skiing, hiking, shopping, fishing and more. The Hudson River and quaint riverfront towns are also nearby. Here's your opportunity to bring this house back to life and make it reflect your style and personality.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1890
• Listed 114 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $876 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 2.9% in Cairo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#755 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $542 of equity ($276 loan paydown + $266 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $40k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.04%
• DSCR: 5.18
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,773
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -84.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Birk St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+12%)	9mo	$245,000	$146	51
10 Colonial Ct	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	13mo	$235,000	$175	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $55,887
• Equity at exit: $12,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.8%
• Equity multiple: 12.39×
• Total profit: $127,270
• Equity at exit: $16,671

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12405

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $876

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $39,900 Pending 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $39,900 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $39,900 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,900 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $39,900 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-04-17
    price $39,900 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Priced to sell and in need of full renovation (see photos). This house sits in the hamlet of Acra not far from the Catskill Mountains and all there is to do there, skiing, hiking, shopping, fishing and more. The Hudson River and quaint riverfront towns are also nearby. Here's your opportunity to bring this house back to life and make it reflect your style and personality.

13. 2026-02-16
    listed $49,000 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Priced to sell and in need of full renovation (see photos). This house sits in the hamlet of Acra not far from the Catskill Mountains and all there is to do there, skiing, hiking, shopping, fishing and more. The Hudson River and quaint riverfront towns are also nearby. Here's your opportunity to bring this house back to life and make it reflect your style and personality.

14. 2025-05-01
    listed $35,000 Active
15. 2024-08-21
    listed $59,000
16. 2020-11-06
    soldstatus $22,000
17. 2019-03-07
    listed $29,900
18. 2013-02-25
    soldstatus $10,000
19. 2012-11-08
    historical
20. 2012-10-25
    listed $15,943
21. 2011-11-08
    listed $21,870

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $10,496
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,519
• After-tax cash flow: $7,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation and restoration to bring it back to a livable condition. Significant repairs and updates are needed to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Severe damage and peeling paint
• Major Interior walls — Exposed framing and debris
• Major Flooring — Exposed framing and debris
• Major Windows — Exposed framing and debris
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Exposed framing and debris
• Major Roof — Exposed framing and debris

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves property's visual appeal and marketability
• Both Exterior siding and paint — Enhances property's appearance and value
• Both Interior walls and flooring — Restores functionality and enhances living space
• Both Windows and HVAC/mechanicals — Improves energy efficiency and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Severe damage and peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Exposed framing and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Exposed framing and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Exposed framing and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Exposed framing and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Exposed framing and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves property's visual appeal and marketability ↑
• Both Exterior siding and paint — Enhances property's appearance and value ↑
• Both Interior walls and flooring — Restores functionality and enhances living space ↑
• Both Windows and HVAC/mechanicals — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cairo

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #755
• US rank: #14433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,406
• Population (ZIP): 449

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Current HPI: 407.3052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+82.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $39,900 HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $49,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $35,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-08-21 Listed $59,000 HVCRMLS
• 2020-11-06 Sold (MLS) $22,000 HVCRMLS
• 2019-03-07 Listed $29,900 HVCRMLS
• 2013-02-25 Sold (MLS) $10,000 Global MLS
• 2012-11-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2012-10-25 Listed $15,943 Global MLS
• 2011-11-08 Listed $21,870 Global MLS