349 Satchel Paige Lot 349 · Ward, AR 72176

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $196k · 10% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Exciting news for prospective homeowners! A brand new construction modern home is about to break ground, offering you the perfect opportunity to select your personal style. This stunning residence will feature four spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, designed with an open floor plan that includes a stylish island in the kitchen. The primary suite will impress with a large bedroom that boasts direct access to a patio, perfect for outdoor enjoyment. You'll find double vanities, a luxurious tile walk-in shower, and an expansive walk-in closet, ensuring both comfort and convenience. The home also includes three additional bedrooms, allowing for versatile use, whether you need extra sleeping sp

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Tile walk-in shower
• Stylish island

Tags

• BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STYLISH ISLAND
• DIRECT ACCESS TO PATIO
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• TILE WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options include VA, FHA, conventional, cash, and Rural Development

Exterior

• Parking: Garage for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service via cooperative; Insulated windows
• Home design: New construction; Inside city limits
• Construction: Brick and metal/vinyl siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction (2026)
• Exterior features: Patio; Level lot in a subdivision; Paved road access; All underground utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric); Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Walk-in shower; Breakfast bar; Quartz kitchen countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,389 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,704
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,586 (+10%)	1mo	$215,000	$136	81
450 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,586 (+10%)	3mo	$200,000	$126	80
490 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,586 (+10%)	2mo	$204,000	$129	79
7 Sunshine Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	4mo	$192,000	$133	72
460 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (+4%)	1mo	$200,000	$134	67
500 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,489 (+4%)	4mo	$211,000	$142	65
391 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,586 (+10%)	1mo	$193,000	$122	63
341 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,586 (+10%)	1mo	$193,000	$122	63
440 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-11%)	5mo	$185,000	$145	55
710 Moon Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,321 (-8%)	4mo	$224,500	$170	51
10 Mill Creek Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,347 (-6%)	1mo	$205,000	$152	51
23 Moonridge Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (-14%)	1mo	$180,000	$145	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $36,501
• Equity at exit: $126,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $123,558
• Equity at exit: $222,264

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $175,345

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	23d	1	0.26mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	23d	1	0.54mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	23d	1	0.59mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	18d	1	0.72mi
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	23d	1	0.75mi
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	23d	1	1.04mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	21d	1	1.07mi
561 Brewer St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	44d	1	1.13mi
33 Langford St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,300	$1.11	23d	1	1.42mi
14 Stephens St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	43d	1	1.42mi
39 Bud Grimes Rd Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,550	$1.19	18d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $215,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$7,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,713
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $215,000 CARMLS