12307 Longfellow Dr · Conroe, TX 77356

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,803 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 228 Days on market

Built 2006 8,067 sqft lot $139/sqft · 16% below area Est $297k · 16% under $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Balanced living meets everyday convenience in this 3-bed, 2.5-bath home featuring bright interiors, a center-island kitchen, and a 2-car attached garage. Located in Montgomery with access to Lake Conroe’s marinas and waterfront recreation, plus nearby parks like Memory Park and Cedar Brake Park. Close to April Sound Country Club, local dining along Hwy 105, and area trails at the Sam Houston National Forest. A good setting with room to make the home fit your style. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Area trails
• Nearby parks
• Local dining

Tags

• CENTER-ISLAND KITCHEN
• ACCESS TO LAKE CONROE
• NEARBY PARKS
• APRIL SOUND COUNTRY CLUB
• LOCAL DINING
• AREA TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1069 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,239 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.60%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,984
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -15.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3202 Pine Hollow Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,874 (+4%)	1mo	$339,999	$181	90
3226 Woodwind Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,868 (+4%)	2mo	$285,000	$153	88
3310 Woodwick	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-3%)	1mo	$235,000	$134	86
3322 Willowbend Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,907 (+6%)	5mo	$279,000	$146	77
3218 W Woodchuck Rd W	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,983 (+10%)	1mo	$239,900	$121	72
12807 Oak Village Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,927 (+7%)	2mo	$325,000	$169	60
12710 Lake Shore Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,929 (+7%)	5mo	$309,000	$160	59
11342 Shadyside Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,820 (+1%)	5mo	$294,990	$162	59
12602 Browning Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,019 (+12%)	5mo	$449,000	$222	53
3062 Poe Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-15%)	2mo	$229,500	$149	51
11819 Doretta Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,606 (-11%)	4mo	$244,900	$152	49
11705 Marina View Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,050 (+14%)	3mo	$379,990	$185	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-67,110
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-107,693
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,475/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,457

Max offer price $192,239

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-256	+0% $-326	+5% $-397	+10% $-468
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-407	+0% $-326	+5% $-246	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-263	base $-326	+0.5pp $-391	+1.0pp $-457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12255 Trail Hollow Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	16d	1	0.56mi
11243 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,699	$1.18	6d	1	0.76mi
11231 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,499	$1.01	23d	1	0.78mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	45d	1	1.15mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	22d	1	1.16mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	45d	1	1.18mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	45d	1	1.21mi
62 April Point Dr S Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.5	2153	$1,850	$0.86	25d	1	1.27mi
3804 Mystic Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1888	$2,100	$1.11	45d	1	1.33mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	45d	1	1.45mi
3679 Windswept Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,000	$1.09	20d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 211 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 207 DOM
16. 2025-11-05
    listed $249,900 Active 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Balanced living meets everyday convenience in this 3-bed, 2.5-bath home featuring bright interiors, a center-island kitchen, and a 2-car attached garage. Located in Montgomery with access to Lake Conroe’s marinas and waterfront recreation, plus nearby parks like Memory Park and Cedar Brake Park. Close to April Sound Country Club, local dining along Hwy 105, and area trails at the Sam Houston National Forest. A good setting with room to make the home fit your style. Schedule your showing today.

17. 2024-10-09
    historical
18. 2024-10-03
    price $265,900
19. 2024-10-03
    status Active
20. 2024-09-26
    status Pending
21. 2024-09-17
    status Option Pending
22. 2024-09-10
    price $269,900
23. 2024-09-10
    status Active
24. 2024-09-10
    historical $2,000
25. 2024-09-05
    listed $2,000
26. 2024-09-04
    historical
27. 2024-08-27
    price $292,000
28. 2024-05-14
    price $326,000
29. 2024-05-14
    listed $330,000 Active
30. 2024-04-23
    soldstatus
31. 2002-10-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,475 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,475 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,475
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$8,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,976
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $265,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $292,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $326,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,475 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.