22727 N Rocco Rd · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2020 5,865 sqft lot $200/sqft · 20% below area Est $362k · 20% under $79/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A VERRY RARE opportunity at this price. This TRULEY move-in-ready home showcases a refined kitchen with upgraded cabinetry, granite counters, a large gas cooktop, pantry, and an expansive center island with breakfast bar and dual sinks. The well appointed primary suite offers a spacious walk-in shower and dual vanities. An oversized laundry room provides exceptional storage. The seamless flow between a great room large enough for any sectional, the dining area, and kitchen, is highlighted by tones of natural light. Enjoy a fully landscaped backyard with an architecturally designed recessed patio, with the added privacy of no two-story neighbors. This is the time and place you can own a home you'll enjoy living in, and be proud to show your friends and family.

Key facts

• Large gas cooktop
• Upgraded cabinetry
• Refined kitchen

Tags

• REFINED KITCHEN
• UPGRADED CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LARGE GAS COOKTOP
• EXPANSIVE CENTER ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-365 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rosa Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 50% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,979 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.40%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,698
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -19.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22727 N Rocco Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+0%)	0mo	$295,000	$204	100
40643 W Shaver Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,447 (0%)	2mo	$310,000	$214	87
40110 W Cahill Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+1%)	4mo	$280,000	$191	67
22100 N Lynn St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+10%)	1mo	$360,000	$227	65
40913 W Sunland Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+10%)	2mo	$315,000	$198	63
40075 W Sparks Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+10%)	3mo	$314,900	$199	63
22040 N Lynn St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+10%)	2mo	$350,000	$221	62
40045 W Sparks Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+10%)	3mo	$335,000	$211	62
39985 W Rio Lobo Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,339 (-8%)	2mo	$285,000	$213	61
41039 W Sunland Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+12%)	2mo	$319,990	$198	57
39980 W Rio Lobo Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,579 (+9%)	1mo	$330,000	$209	55
41208 W Bravo Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,658 (+15%)	5mo	$275,000	$166	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-45,995
• Equity at exit: $71,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-54,342
• Equity at exit: $76,495

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,841/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,372

Max offer price $225,473

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-201	-5% $-283	+0% $-365	+5% $-447	+10% $-529
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-441	+0% $-365	+5% $-290	+10% $-214
Rate	-1.0pp $-219	-0.5pp $-292	base $-365	+0.5pp $-440	+1.0pp $-517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40356 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,695	$1.08	0d	1	0.09mi
40145 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,750	$1.11	45d	1	0.11mi
40322 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,750	$1.21	26d	1	0.12mi
40451 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,150	$1.36	0d	1	0.13mi
40499 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	45d	1	0.16mi
40499 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,599	$1.21	45d	1	0.16mi
40643 W Shaver Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,595	$1.10	26d	1	0.25mi
40871 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	0d	1	0.39mi
21765 N Rummler Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,095	$1.33	7d	1	0.61mi
40040 W Elm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1598	$2,050	$1.28	45d	1	0.68mi
41201 W Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,799	$1.16	4d	1	0.75mi
21742 N Bradford Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,775	$1.08	26d	1	0.77mi
21742 N Bradford Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	0.77mi
22693 N Davis Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,399	$1.09	45d	1	0.78mi
41192 W Rio Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1774	$1,789	$1.01	22d	1	0.87mi
41284 W Cahill Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,750	$1.29	12d	1	0.87mi
22463 N Dietz Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,000	$1.10	26d	1	0.88mi
41793 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,695	$1.15	0d	1	0.96mi
41793 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,695	$1.15	14d	1	0.96mi
39974 W Thornberry Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,900	$1.30	17d	1	0.98mi
41889 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	3.0	1857	$1,845	$0.99	7d	1	1.01mi
21552 N Liles Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	1.02mi
39964 W Sanders Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1466	$1,759	$1.20	0d	1	1.03mi
41570 W Dusty Creek Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	1.25mi
22303 Bishop Dr Unit 1545930P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,871	$2.59	14d	1	1.26mi
21110 N Blue Agave Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	45d	1	1.31mi
20392 N Mac Neil St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,656	$1.07	0d	1	1.44mi
42622 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1819	$2,099	$1.15	18d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   A VERRY RARE opportunity at this price. This TRULEY move-in-ready home showcases a refined kitchen with upgraded cabinetry, granite counters, a large gas cooktop, pantry, and an expansive center island with breakfast bar and dual sinks. The well appointed primary suite offers a spacious walk-in shower and dual vanities. An oversized laundry room provides exceptional storage. The seamless flow between a great room large enough for any sectional, the dining area, and kitchen, is highlighted by tones of natural light. Enjoy a fully landscaped backyard with an architecturally designed recessed patio, with the added privacy of no two-story neighbors. This is the time and place you can own a home you'll enjoy living in, and be proud to show your friends and family.

2. 2026-05-04
   status Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   A VERRY RARE opportunity at this price. This TRULEY move-in-ready home showcases a refined kitchen with upgraded cabinetry, granite counters, a large gas cooktop, pantry, and an expansive center island with breakfast bar and dual sinks. The well appointed primary suite offers a spacious walk-in shower and dual vanities. An oversized laundry room provides exceptional storage. The seamless flow between a great room large enough for any sectional, the dining area, and kitchen, is highlighted by tones of natural light. Enjoy a fully landscaped backyard with an architecturally designed recessed patio, with the added privacy of no two-story neighbors. This is the time and place you can own a home you'll enjoy living in, and be proud to show your friends and family.

3. 2026-04-12
   status Pending 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   A VERRY RARE opportunity at this price. This TRULEY move-in-ready home showcases a refined kitchen with upgraded cabinetry, granite counters, a large gas cooktop, pantry, and an expansive center island with breakfast bar and dual sinks. The well appointed primary suite offers a spacious walk-in shower and dual vanities. An oversized laundry room provides exceptional storage. The seamless flow between a great room large enough for any sectional, the dining area, and kitchen, is highlighted by tones of natural light. Enjoy a fully landscaped backyard with an architecturally designed recessed patio, with the added privacy of no two-story neighbors. This is the time and place you can own a home you'll enjoy living in, and be proud to show your friends and family.

4. 2026-03-27
   listed $290,000 Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   A VERRY RARE opportunity at this price. This TRULEY move-in-ready home showcases a refined kitchen with upgraded cabinetry, granite counters, a large gas cooktop, pantry, and an expansive center island with breakfast bar and dual sinks. The well appointed primary suite offers a spacious walk-in shower and dual vanities. An oversized laundry room provides exceptional storage. The seamless flow between a great room large enough for any sectional, the dining area, and kitchen, is highlighted by tones of natural light. Enjoy a fully landscaped backyard with an architecturally designed recessed patio, with the added privacy of no two-story neighbors. This is the time and place you can own a home you'll enjoy living in, and be proud to show your friends and family.

5. 2022-10-21
   soldstatus $340,000 Closed 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   ***this home qualifies for a 1% down payment program***in the popular The Lakes community!!! Come see this barely lived in SMART HOME. Split floorplan with fully landscaped backyard. House finished end of 2020 and just has had one owner. Granite countertops and seller is including fridge, washer and dryer! Just a few houses down from a childrens' playground and green belt. At this price it won't last long!

6. 2022-10-21
   soldstatus $340,000

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   ***this home qualifies for a 1% down payment program***in the popular The Lakes community!!! Come see this barely lived in SMART HOME. Split floorplan with fully landscaped backyard. House finished end of 2020 and just has had one owner. Granite countertops and seller is including fridge, washer and dryer! Just a few houses down from a childrens' playground and green belt. At this price it won't last long!

7. 2022-09-13
   status Pending 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   ***this home qualifies for a 1% down payment program***in the popular The Lakes community!!! Come see this barely lived in SMART HOME. Split floorplan with fully landscaped backyard. House finished end of 2020 and just has had one owner. Granite countertops and seller is including fridge, washer and dryer! Just a few houses down from a childrens' playground and green belt. At this price it won't last long!

8. 2022-09-01
   status Active 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   ***this home qualifies for a 1% down payment program***in the popular The Lakes community!!! Come see this barely lived in SMART HOME. Split floorplan with fully landscaped backyard. House finished end of 2020 and just has had one owner. Granite countertops and seller is including fridge, washer and dryer! Just a few houses down from a childrens' playground and green belt. At this price it won't last long!

9. 2022-08-31
   price $2,060
10. 2022-08-26
    historical 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    ***this home qualifies for a 1% down payment program***in the popular The Lakes community!!! Come see this barely lived in SMART HOME. Split floorplan with fully landscaped backyard. House finished end of 2020 and just has had one owner. Granite countertops and seller is including fridge, washer and dryer! Just a few houses down from a childrens' playground and green belt. At this price it won't last long!

11. 2022-08-23
    listed $345,000 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    ***this home qualifies for a 1% down payment program***in the popular The Lakes community!!! Come see this barely lived in SMART HOME. Split floorplan with fully landscaped backyard. House finished end of 2020 and just has had one owner. Granite countertops and seller is including fridge, washer and dryer! Just a few houses down from a childrens' playground and green belt. At this price it won't last long!

12. 2019-09-20
    soldstatus $8,592,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,841 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$1,841
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$9,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,320
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-96.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $290,000 ARMLS
• 2022-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-21 Sold (MLS) $340,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-09-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $2,060 RENT.
• 2022-08-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-08-23 Listed $345,000 ARMLS
• 2019-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $8,592,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,841 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.