309 W South 1st St · Shelbyville, IL 62565

$79,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1875 0.44 ac lot Est $86k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into a home full of character, charm, and endless possibilities. Currently configured as a single-family residence, this spacious two-story property offers the potential for conversion into a multi-family home with the right vision and improvements. The inviting open front porch creates a warm first impression and is the perfect place to relax and enjoy the neighborhood. Inside, the main floor features a large living room, family room, dining room, kitchen, laundry room, and a main-level bedroom with a full bathroom — offering flexible living arrangements and convenience. An enclosed side porch provides excellent additional storage space. Upstairs, you’ll find four large be

Key facts

• Enclosed side porch
• Spacious backyard
• Open front porch

Tags

• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED SIDE PORCH
• WINDING FRONT STAIRCASE
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Rubber and shingle roof; Built with a crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Two fireplaces; Unfinished, partial crawl space basement; Accessible entrance; Front porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 5.0% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#355 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelbyville CUSD 4 (town): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #225 of 620 in IL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.43%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 W South 1st St	0.16mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,450 (+1%)	14mo	$87,500	$60	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $19,606
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $58,936
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62565

• Home prices YoY: -11.6%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $444/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $619

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $79,900 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   status $79,900 Active Under Contract 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    remarks 687-char remark
11. 2026-06-01
    listed $79,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,129 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$685/yr (+$57/mo · 154.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$444
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,230
• After-tax cash flow: $4,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelbyville CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1736090
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $44,461
• Composite: 28.1/100
• National rank: #6827
• State rank: #225 of 620 in IL

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #7321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbyville, IL
• City population: 7,422
• Population (ZIP): 7,422

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,512 people
• By 2030: 19,675 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 17,851 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 15,973 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 11,799 · -42.5%
• By 2100: 8,030 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.2% · R 79.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+57.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.35%
• Current HPI: 178.3002
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $79,900 CIBR

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $444 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.