Gray Plan · Houston, TX 77532

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Gray floor plan is a well-designed one-story home that offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a spacious two-car garage. This layout emphasizes an open-concept design, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas for effortless entertaining. The primary suite is positioned for privacy and includes a well-equipped ensuite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. With modern features and a smart, functional layout, the Gray floor plan is perfect for comfortable everyday living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,990
• HOA & community: Located in a community (Sundance Cove)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Gray plan); New construction — Plan inventory type
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory
• Exterior features: Located in the Sundance Cove community; Living area approximately 1,433

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan-design kitchen (Gray plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area layout

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $235,012.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $216,281 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,012
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2603 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-1%)	1mo	$232,540	$164	80
2522 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	1mo	$239,940	$166	78
2550 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+0%)	3mo	$211,790	$147	78
2535 Paloverde Canyon Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	0mo	$243,940	$168	78
2619 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-1%)	3mo	$215,540	$152	77
2543 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-2%)	3mo	$237,540	$169	77
2519 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-2%)	2mo	$235,540	$168	77
2602 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	2mo	$239,940	$166	77
2530 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+1%)	3mo	$232,940	$161	76
2534 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-1%)	3mo	$215,540	$152	76
18815 Deer Trace Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+10%)	3mo	$257,900	$164	69
2515 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+9%)	3mo	$249,040	$160	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,926
• Equity at exit: $35,041

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-37,189
• Equity at exit: $20,320

Cash invested: $65,803 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $235,012

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,753
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	24d	1	1.18mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	12d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 553-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $249,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$6,837
• Taxable loss: −$2,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$696
• After-tax cash flow: $1,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home with a modern design and good condition is ready for immediate occupancy. It offers a spacious floor plan, modern kitchen, and a good curb appeal. Potential buyers and tenants will appreciate the home's functionality and curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern, energy-efficient appliances can improve the home's functionality and appeal to buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern, energy-efficient appliances can improve the home's functionality and appeal to buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B