10220 Wellington Ave · Dade City, FL 33525

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1973 8,807 sqft lot Est $164k · 34% under $247/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large, older mobile home on good-sized lot. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 1-car carport with large screened room and covered open porch. Home has 1344 square feet of living area and a total metal roof-over, with a fairly new air conditioner. HOA fee includes water, sewer and garbage pickup. Lot is 90x100 with a small cutout in back on one side. Some furnishings may be available.

Key facts

• Pickle ball
• Clubhouse
• Split floor plan

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PICKLE BALL
• GOLF-CART FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• NEW SOLAR PANELS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Monthly HOA listed as $245 and total monthly fees shown as $247.08; Total acreage under 1/4 acre (approx. 0.2 acres); Paved road access; Deed-restricted community
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $245 (includes grounds maintenance, trash, water); Association required; buyer approval required; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) up to 30 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story; North-facing; One-level entry
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered, screened patio/porch; Awnings; Private mailbox; Oversized paved lot; Trees and landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Solar heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Formal dining; Split bedroom floorplan; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 667 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,773/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $109k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,730 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.15%
• DSCR: 3.23
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,968
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10045 Hamp Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+4%)	8mo	$170,000	$121	73
10047 Collingwood Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (-8%)	2mo	$150,000	$122	72
10029 Wellington Ave	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (-8%)	8mo	$182,500	$148	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $63,770
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $160,937
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,773 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $613/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$247
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $1,275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10043 Collingwood Ave Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,000	$2.33	24d	1	0.14mi
10030 Sterling Ave Unit 1234467P Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,744	$2.14	12d	1	0.15mi
10034 Hamp Dr Unit 1234478P Dade City, FL	3.0	1.0	968	$3,164	$3.27	2d	1	0.17mi
9960 U.S. 98 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,500	$1.55	4d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $247 · $2,964/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $109,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    listed $109,000 Active
15. 2016-12-20
    soldstatus $39,000 Sold 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Large, older mobile home on good-sized lot. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 1-car carport with large screened room and covered open porch. Home has 1344 square feet of living area and a total metal roof-over, with a fairly new air conditioner. HOA fee includes water, sewer and garbage pickup. Lot is 90x100 with a small cutout in back on one side. Some furnishings may be available.

16. 2016-12-19
    status Pending 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Large, older mobile home on good-sized lot. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 1-car carport with large screened room and covered open porch. Home has 1344 square feet of living area and a total metal roof-over, with a fairly new air conditioner. HOA fee includes water, sewer and garbage pickup. Lot is 90x100 with a small cutout in back on one side. Some furnishings may be available.

17. 2016-11-02
    status Active 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Large, older mobile home on good-sized lot. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 1-car carport with large screened room and covered open porch. Home has 1344 square feet of living area and a total metal roof-over, with a fairly new air conditioner. HOA fee includes water, sewer and garbage pickup. Lot is 90x100 with a small cutout in back on one side. Some furnishings may be available.

18. 2016-10-31
    historical 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Large, older mobile home on good-sized lot. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 1-car carport with large screened room and covered open porch. Home has 1344 square feet of living area and a total metal roof-over, with a fairly new air conditioner. HOA fee includes water, sewer and garbage pickup. Lot is 90x100 with a small cutout in back on one side. Some furnishings may be available.

19. 2016-10-18
    price $44,900 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Large, older mobile home on good-sized lot. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 1-car carport with large screened room and covered open porch. Home has 1344 square feet of living area and a total metal roof-over, with a fairly new air conditioner. HOA fee includes water, sewer and garbage pickup. Lot is 90x100 with a small cutout in back on one side. Some furnishings may be available.

20. 2016-05-18
    listed $49,500 Active 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Large, older mobile home on good-sized lot. Home has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 1-car carport with large screened room and covered open porch. Home has 1344 square feet of living area and a total metal roof-over, with a fairly new air conditioner. HOA fee includes water, sewer and garbage pickup. Lot is 90x100 with a small cutout in back on one side. Some furnishings may be available.

21. 2005-11-30
    soldstatus $48,000
22. 2005-11-29
    soldstatus $48,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Very nice double wide with a large 21 x 13 living room, new vinyl kitchen floor. New master bedroom carpet. Inside utility. Located at the end of the street. Very private.

23. 2005-09-27
    listed $58,000 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Very nice double wide with a large 21 x 13 living room, new vinyl kitchen floor. New master bedroom carpet. Inside utility. Located at the end of the street. Very private.

24. 1996-04-12
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $613 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$292/yr (+$24/mo · 47.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$613
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,662
• − Management: −$2,662
• − HOA: −$2,964
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $14,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,493
• After-tax cash flow: $11,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+211.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-20 Sold (MLS) $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-18 Price Changed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-18 Listed $49,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-29 Sold (MLS) $48,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-27 Listed $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $613 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.