12 Keepsake Ln · Luthersville, GA 30222

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1980 1.02 ac lot $177/sqft · 30% below area Est $243k · 30% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Separate dining room
• Large yard

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• RECENT UPDATES
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (33.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (49.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (49.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.1% in Luthersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#570 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,818 (49.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.15%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 16.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,173
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -30.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $71,856
• Equity at exit: $153,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $227,603
• Equity at exit: $330,078

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30222

• Home prices YoY: 35.0%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $112,810

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

4. 2026-04-13
   price $169,900 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

5. 2026-04-13
   price $169,900 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

6. 2026-04-13
   price $169,900

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

7. 2026-03-13
   listed $179,900 Active 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

8. 2026-03-13
   listed $179,900 Active 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

9. 2026-03-13
   listed $179,900 New

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Country living at its finest! This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is perfectly situated on 1.02 acres, offering both space and serenity. Inside, you'll find stylish LVP flooring throughout and a separate dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully updated, this home features fresh interior paint, updated wiring, a new HVAC system, modern flooring, and a recently replaced roof-providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard, perfect for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing in your own private retreat. Don't miss this incredible opportunity-schedule your private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,563 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,091/yr (+$91/mo · 230.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$824
• − Management: −$824
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$7,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,711
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meriwether County
• NCES district ID: 1303630
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,287
• Composite: 16.59/100
• National rank: #9175
• State rank: #144 of 174 in GA

Livability — Luthersville

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #570
• US rank: #25034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,219

Population outlook (Meriwether County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,554 people
• By 2030: 18,482 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 16,204 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 14,030 · -28.2%
• By 2075: 9,539 · -51.2%
• By 2100: 6,136 · -68.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 44% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meriwether

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 37.1% · R 62.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -5.4pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+5.7 2008: R+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 110.39%
• Current HPI: 426.1094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — EABOR
• 2026-05-13 Pending — CBOR
• 2026-05-13 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $169,900 EABOR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $169,900 CBOR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $169,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $179,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $179,900 CBOR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $179,900 EABOR

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $472 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.