4820 Gulfgate Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 736 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $158k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful furnished, clean 2/2 home ready to move in. GULF ACCESS via community boat ramp in 55+ Pine Island Cove. New roof in 2019, A/C in 2018 and new floors. Walk in closets, remodel bath room very nice. Large lot with room in the back lawn for a deck, garden and great view from front lanai of a pasture. Community has large heated pool, hot tub, club house, boat ramp, picnic area, dog park, boat & RV storage, bocee, pickleball and a lot of activities for everyone. Community is close to restaurants, shops, banks, churches.

Key facts

• Oversized lot
• Built 1989
• Listed 22 days

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• INSULATED COMPOSITE ROOF
• POLY CARBONATE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.85%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,504
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7261 Drum Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	768 (+4%)	14mo	$100,000	$130	74
4873 Curlew Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	840 (+14%)	8mo	$180,000	$214	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,411
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,707
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,931

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-26
   listed $180,000 Active
10. 2025-04-30
    historical
11. 2024-12-21
    price $228,000
12. 2024-10-30
    price $229,000
13. 2024-06-14
    price $239,000
14. 2024-05-02
    price $249,500
15. 2024-01-30
    price $259,000
16. 2023-10-18
    listed $269,000 Active
17. 2022-06-17
    soldstatus $189,000
18. 2022-06-16
    soldstatus $189,000 Closed 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Beautiful furnished, clean 2/2 home ready to move in. GULF ACCESS via community boat ramp in 55+ Pine Island Cove. New roof in 2019, A/C in 2018 and new floors. Walk in closets, remodel bath room very nice. Large lot with room in the back lawn for a deck, garden and great view from front lanai of a pasture. Community has large heated pool, hot tub, club house, boat ramp, picnic area, dog park, boat & RV storage, bocee, pickleball and a lot of activities for everyone. Community is close to restaurants, shops, banks, churches.

19. 2022-05-15
    status Pending 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Beautiful furnished, clean 2/2 home ready to move in. GULF ACCESS via community boat ramp in 55+ Pine Island Cove. New roof in 2019, A/C in 2018 and new floors. Walk in closets, remodel bath room very nice. Large lot with room in the back lawn for a deck, garden and great view from front lanai of a pasture. Community has large heated pool, hot tub, club house, boat ramp, picnic area, dog park, boat & RV storage, bocee, pickleball and a lot of activities for everyone. Community is close to restaurants, shops, banks, churches.

20. 2022-05-13
    listed $189,000 Active 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Beautiful furnished, clean 2/2 home ready to move in. GULF ACCESS via community boat ramp in 55+ Pine Island Cove. New roof in 2019, A/C in 2018 and new floors. Walk in closets, remodel bath room very nice. Large lot with room in the back lawn for a deck, garden and great view from front lanai of a pasture. Community has large heated pool, hot tub, club house, boat ramp, picnic area, dog park, boat & RV storage, bocee, pickleball and a lot of activities for everyone. Community is close to restaurants, shops, banks, churches.

21. 2020-09-22
    soldstatus $120,000
22. 2020-09-21
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed
23. 2020-08-18
    status Pending
24. 2020-04-16
    status Active
25. 2020-03-19
    status Pending
26. 2020-01-03
    price $132,500
27. 2019-10-05
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$531/yr (+$44/mo · 55.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$6,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77
• After-tax cash flow: $2,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $180,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-12-21 Price Changed $228,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $229,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $239,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-05-02 Price Changed $249,500 FORTMLS
• 2024-01-30 Price Changed $259,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-10-18 Listed $269,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-16 Sold (MLS) $189,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-05-15 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-05-13 Listed $189,000 FORTMLS
• 2020-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-21 Sold (MLS) $120,000 FORTMLS
• 2020-08-18 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2020-04-16 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2020-03-19 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2020-01-03 Price Changed $132,500 FORTMLS
• 2019-10-05 Listed $135,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $963 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.