4784 Birch Dr · Preston, MD 21655

$259,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 2001 1.04 ac lot $160/sqft · 26% below area Est $349k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

needs work, some sub flooring and kitchen and bathroom finish flooring https://www. oceancitydirections.com/realty/803530803350--4784-birch-dr-preston-md-21655-caroline-MDCM2005154

Key facts

• 1.04 acre lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 154 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Preston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#245 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $260k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,319 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,001
• List price: $259,999
• Delta: -25.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $125,197
• Equity at exit: $226,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $373,728
• Equity at exit: $479,923

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21655

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,965/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,070

Max offer price $235,283

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,999 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,999 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,999 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,999 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,999 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $259,999 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,999 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,999 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,999 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $259,999 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,999 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,999 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,999 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,999 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,999 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-03-18
    price $239,999 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    needs work, some sub flooring and kitchen and bathroom finish flooring https://www. oceancitydirections.com/realty/803530803350--4784-birch-dr-preston-md-21655-caroline-MDCM2005154

17. 2026-03-07
    price $249,999 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    needs work, some sub flooring and kitchen and bathroom finish flooring https://www. oceancitydirections.com/realty/803530803350--4784-birch-dr-preston-md-21655-caroline-MDCM2005154

18. 2026-03-05
    price $244,999 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    needs work, some sub flooring and kitchen and bathroom finish flooring https://www. oceancitydirections.com/realty/803530803350--4784-birch-dr-preston-md-21655-caroline-MDCM2005154

19. 2026-02-17
    price $224,999 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    needs work, some sub flooring and kitchen and bathroom finish flooring https://www. oceancitydirections.com/realty/803530803350--4784-birch-dr-preston-md-21655-caroline-MDCM2005154

20. 2026-02-08
    price $229,999 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    needs work, some sub flooring and kitchen and bathroom finish flooring https://www. oceancitydirections.com/realty/803530803350--4784-birch-dr-preston-md-21655-caroline-MDCM2005154

21. 2026-01-23
    price $235,000 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    needs work, some sub flooring and kitchen and bathroom finish flooring https://www. oceancitydirections.com/realty/803530803350--4784-birch-dr-preston-md-21655-caroline-MDCM2005154

22. 2026-01-15
    listed $245,000 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    needs work, some sub flooring and kitchen and bathroom finish flooring https://www. oceancitydirections.com/realty/803530803350--4784-birch-dr-preston-md-21655-caroline-MDCM2005154

23. 2025-02-19
    historical
24. 2025-01-12
    status Active
25. 2025-01-10
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2025-01-02
    listed $299,000 Active
27. 2024-12-17
    historical
28. 2021-07-12
    status Pending
29. 2021-07-12
    historical
30. 2021-07-02
    listed $224,900 Active
31. 2019-06-27
    soldstatus $103,500 Closed
32. 2019-05-21
    status Pending
33. 2019-05-15
    price $105,500
34. 2019-04-15
    price $119,500
35. 2019-03-06
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,965 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$435/yr (+$36/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,965
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
• − Management: −$1,817
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$6,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,514
• After-tax cash flow: $-165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Preston

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #12172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,995

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.58%
• Current HPI: 319.9345
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+84.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $239,999 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $249,999 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $244,999 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $224,999 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $229,999 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $235,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-15 Listed $245,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-02-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-10 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-02 Listed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-17 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-02 Listed $224,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-27 Sold (MLS) $103,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-15 Price Changed $105,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-15 Price Changed $119,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-06 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,965 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.