119 Thunderbird Dr · Athens, TX 75751

$81,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,571 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1955 0.26 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity or a great place to liveyou decide. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home nestled in the heart of Athens. The spacious living area features distinctive brick flooring and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. Past updates before now included a replaced HVAC system, hot water heater, flooring, and roof, which should give added value. This one is a diamond in the rough and need a lot of TLC but its priced right and just waiting on its' next owner. * * This home is being sold "as is".

Key facts

• Hot water heater
• Replaced hvac system
• Brick flooring

Tags

• BRICK FLOORING
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• REPLACED HVAC SYSTEM
• HOT WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Front porch; Chain link fencing; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Oven
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.5% in Athens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#241 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Athens ISD (town): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #548 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $566 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.0% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,671 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.84%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,517
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 E Cayuga Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-6%)	3mo	$99,900	$68	77
220 Guadalupe Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+10%)	2mo	$219,900	$127	72
133 Penny Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,716 (+9%)	4mo	$274,500	$160	68
505 Colonial Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+8%)	0mo	$255,000	$150	66
404 Lindsey Ln	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,575 (+0%)	9mo	$210,000	$133	64
223 Guadalupe Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+11%)	10mo	$314,400	$180	62
108 W Clinton Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,420 (-10%)	11mo	$140,000	$99	60
520 Ravenwood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+4%)	11mo	$175,000	$107	59
809 S Prairieville St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,797 (+14%)	11mo	$225,000	$125	56
508 Highland Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+9%)	6mo	$199,000	$116	55
109 Laird Ln	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,416 (-10%)	1mo	$155,900	$110	47
509 Davis Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+13%)	7mo	$232,900	$131	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $20,789
• Equity at exit: $12,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $62,435
• Equity at exit: $7,081

Cash invested: $22,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75751

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$429
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,065/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $81,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,475
• Closing costs: $2,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
910 Maryland Dr Athens, TX	3.0	2.5	1144	$1,750	$1.53	43d	1	0.23mi
1004 W Cayuga Dr Athens, TX	4.0	2.0	1495	$1,500	$1.00	43d	1	0.64mi
1100 Meadow Dr Athens, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,900	$1.36	43d	1	0.84mi
900 E Corsicana St Athens, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$1,339	$1.74	13d	6	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $81,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $81,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $81,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $81,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $81,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $81,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 557-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $81,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $81,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 489-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $81,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,065 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,065 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,588
• − Property taxes: −$4,065
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$2,383
• Taxable income: $5,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,340
• After-tax cash flow: $5,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Athens ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808870
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,617
• Composite: 28.73/100
• National rank: #6680
• State rank: #548 of 826 in TX

Livability — Athens

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #5796

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Athens, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 18,644
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,644
• Household income: $70,620
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.19%
• Current HPI: 192.3973
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $81,900 HCBOR
• 2026-06-04 Listed $81,900 PAOR
• 2018-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-01-24 Listed $140,000 HCBOR
• 2018-01-24 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2018-01-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-01-22 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2016-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-20 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2016-01-20 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2016-01-20 Sold (MLS) — PAOR
• 2016-01-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-12-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-12-21 Listed $78,500 GTAR
• 2015-12-18 Listed $78,500 NTREIS
• 2015-12-17 Listed $78,500 HCBOR
• 2015-12-17 Listed $78,500 PAOR
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-11-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2014-11-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2014-06-11 Price Changed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2014-02-17 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2014-02-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2013-08-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2013-08-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-02-14 Listed $85,500 NTREIS
• 2011-06-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-02-17 Listed $97,000 NTREIS
• 1991-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,065 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.