21 Catalina Dr · Milton, NY 12020

$967,350

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,721 sqft · Land · 94 Days on market

1.26 ac lot $356/sqft · 27% above area Est $762k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Homestead Landing - This is a Quick Delivery Home and there's still time left to personalize it to make it yours. Nestled among expansive open spaces with generous setbacks, this picturesque community offers homesites from just over an acre to nearly 10 acres—ideal for privacy, tranquility, and a neighborhood feel. Enjoy public water, sewer, and natural gas. Homestead Landing blends elegance, comfort, and accessibility. Images shown represent the builder's work and may include options or upgrades not in the base price.

Key facts

• Generous setbacks
• Natural gas
• Public water

Tags

• EXPANSIVE OPEN SPACES
• GENEROUS SETBACKS
• PUBLIC WATER
• NATURAL GAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $967k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-37k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $428k (55.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (66.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $329k (66.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($880k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $329,110 (66.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.34% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.52%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 24.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $761,500
• List price: $967,350
• Delta: 27.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-334,346
• Equity at exit: $144,235

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-464,680
• Equity at exit: $83,639

Cash invested: $270,858 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 24.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,073
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,115/yr
• Insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$691
• Net cashflow: $-3,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,155

Max offer price $428,153

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,505	-5% $-2,778	+0% $-3,052	+5% $-3,326	+10% $-4,754
Rent	-10% $-3,312	-5% $-3,182	+0% $-3,052	+5% $-2,922	+10% $-2,792
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,565	-0.5pp $-2,806	base $-3,052	+0.5pp $-3,303	+1.0pp $-3,558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $241,838
• Closing costs: $29,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 Acland Blvd Ballston Spa, NY	5.0	3.5	2613	$50,000	$19.14	22d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $967,350 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $967,350 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $967,350 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $967,350 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $967,350 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $967,350 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $967,350 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $967,350 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $967,350 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $967,350 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $967,350 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $967,350 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-03-13
    listed $967,350 Active 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Welcome to Homestead Landing - This is a Quick Delivery Home and there's still time left to personalize it to make it yours. Nestled among expansive open spaces with generous setbacks, this picturesque community offers homesites from just over an acre to nearly 10 acres—ideal for privacy, tranquility, and a neighborhood feel. Enjoy public water, sewer, and natural gas. Homestead Landing blends elegance, comfort, and accessibility. Images shown represent the builder's work and may include options or upgrades not in the base price.

14. 2026-03-12
    historical
15. 2025-12-09
    listed $967,350 Active
16. 2021-01-14
    soldstatus $2,972,500
17. 2020-09-22
    historical
18. 2019-02-05
    listed $505,328 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,115 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,232 · $769/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,116/yr (+$593/mo · 336.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$54,187
• − Property taxes: −$2,115
• − Insurance: −$4,837
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,159
• − Management: −$3,159
• − Depreciation: −$28,141
• Taxable loss: −$56,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,465
• After-tax cash flow: $-23,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #11825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+91.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $967,350 Global MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $967,350 Global MLS
• 2021-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $2,972,500 Public Records
• 2020-09-22 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2019-02-05 Listed $505,328 Global MLS

Property tax history

+50.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,115 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.