9408 Beryl Ln · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$189,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $125/sqft · 17% below area Est $228k · 17% under $46/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($551/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $177,834 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,861
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: -16.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9432 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	0mo	$246,500	$162	100
9408 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	1mo	$189,990	$125	100
9341 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	2mo	$239,700	$157	98
9321 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	3mo	$238,200	$157	98
9305 Beryl Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-2%)	6mo	$199,990	$133	92
12821 Lime Stone Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-1%)	6mo	$229,400	$153	90
9313 Hard Rock Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-2%)	3mo	$194,990	$130	85
9356 Beryl Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	4mo	$232,200	$164	85
9143 Stonebrooke Chase Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	4mo	$184,990	$122	85
9440 Hard Rock Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	2mo	$233,500	$165	81
9132 Stonebrooke Chase Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-2%)	5mo	$189,990	$127	80
9155 Stonebrooke Chase Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-7%)	0mo	$239,990	$170	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,019
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-44,904
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,720

Max offer price $189,990

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1516 Sunset Ridge Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,600	$1.26	44d	1	0.72mi
10828 Champion Forest Loop Unit 110124 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1308	$1,293	$0.99	44d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 808-char remark

   Show marketing remark (808 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease

2. 2026-04-14
   price $189,990 808-char remark

   Show marketing remark (808 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $244,800 Active 808-char remark

   Show marketing remark (808 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Stonebrooke, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$623
• After-tax cash flow: $1,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new single-story home with a modern open concept layout is move-in ready and in excellent condition. It offers a spacious kitchen, a private primary suite, and a fully fenced backyard. The property is well-maintained and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for both buyers and tenants.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Smart locks can improve security and convenience for both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $244,800 HARMLS