6561 Chinaberry Dr NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$155,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1985 6,739 sqft lot $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the best of retirement living in Brookhaven, a welcoming 55+ community! This partially furnished and well-maintained home sits on a desirable lot with OWNED LAND, offering a peaceful and private retreat. Featuring 1,596 sq. ft. of living space, this home boasts a spacious open-concept layout with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Recent updates include a new shingle roof (2024), new A/C unit (2025), and hot water heater (2023). The kitchen offers ample counter space and cabinetry, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy plenty of storage throughout, along with sliding doors that lead to the porch—ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. The guest bedroom and bathroom are g

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• New a/c unit
• Hot water heater

Tags

• NEW SHINGLE ROOF
• NEW A/C UNIT
• HOT WATER HEATER
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• TWO PORCHES
• MATURE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $34, annual $408) — approval required; Community clubhouse; Community pool (included in association fee); Shuffleboard court; Deed restrictions; Special community restrictions; Golf carts permitted; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-space carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; West-facing entry
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Front porch; Side porch; Patio; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access; Trees and landscaped yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry room (outside access)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Vista Elementary School (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 769 students, 60% FRL); Lake Alfred Polytech Academy (math 41% / reading 43%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 645 students, 59% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $156k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,546 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.95%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $695
• Equity at exit: $23,245

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $29,308
• Equity at exit: $13,479

Cash invested: $43,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,745/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,450

Max offer price $155,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $523	-5% $479	+0% $435	+5% $390	+10% $346
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $356	+0% $435	+5% $514	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $513	-0.5pp $474	base $435	+0.5pp $394	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,975
• Closing costs: $4,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	4d	1	0.69mi
241 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	16d	1	0.70mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	25d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,900 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    listed $155,900 Active
16. 2022-03-25
    soldstatus $100,000
17. 2014-05-31
    historical
18. 2014-02-19
    listed $79,900 Active
19. 1991-03-01
    soldstatus $67,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,733
• − Property taxes: −$2,745
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$4,535
• Taxable income: $2,958
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$710
• After-tax cash flow: $4,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+131.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $155,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-19 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,745 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.