5751 Bridge Head Rd #16 · Oakley, CA 94509

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 676 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 2019

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home offers comfortable and affordable living in a convenient location. The open-concept floor plan seamlessly connects the living room and kitchen, creating a bright and inviting space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a gas stove, dishwasher, and refrigerator, while the dedicated indoor laundry area adds convenience. Step outside to the covered patio—ideal for relaxing, weekend BBQs, or enjoying your morning coffee. A storage shed provides additional space for tools and seasonal items. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, dining, and with easy access to Highway 4 for commuting.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Storage shed
• Gas stove

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS STOVE
• DEDICATED INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: SANDY POINT; Pets allowed (dogs OK, size limit, upon approval); Community features include guest parking and laundry

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Carport with awning; Carport for 2 or more vehicles; Side yard access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide model LE 2522R
• Construction: Concrete construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch with steps; Side yard; Low-maintenance exterior; Shed(s) for additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with double vanity and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated kitchen; Storage; Double pane windows; Laundry facility on main level; Main entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $768 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.3% in Oakley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#608 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.70%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $21,470
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $66,094
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,090

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $850	-5% $809	+0% $768	+5% $727	+10% $686
Rent	-10% $605	-5% $686	+0% $768	+5% $849	+10% $931
Rate	-1.0pp $841	-0.5pp $805	base $768	+0.5pp $730	+1.0pp $692

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,954	$2.36	4d	1	0.31mi
3560 E 18th St Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,772	$2.14	0d	9	0.31mi
69 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,813	$2.26	0d	9	0.83mi
49 Carol Ln Oakley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	686	$2,134	$3.11	0d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $145,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on marketlisting id $145,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-04-25
   price $145,000 422-char remark
8. 2026-01-30
   price $150,000 422-char remark
9. 2025-12-05
   price $155,000 422-char remark
10. 2025-11-20
    listed $165,000 Active 422-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,102 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$620/yr (+$52/mo · 128.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,980
• − Management: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $7,237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,737
• After-tax cash flow: $7,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oakley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #608
• US rank: #19421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakley, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 46,368
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $145,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-16 Coming Soon $145,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+23.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $482 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.