2121 Hepburn St #613 · Houston, TX 77054

$104,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 948 sqft · Condo public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1983 $111/sqft · 16% below area Est $124k · 16% under $439/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 2 bedroom 1 bath property located in a gated community one block to the UT Dental School and Scrubs Lab. The property comes with a refrigerator, washer and dryer. The small community has a pool & 24 hour gate monitor. 1 assigned covered parking spot. Close to the 610 & the 288 freeways, shopping, NRG and 1 block to the UT & Metro Shuttle to Texas Medical Center.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Close to freeways
• 24 hour gate monitor

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• POOL
• 24 HOUR GATE MONITOR
• ASSIGNED COVERED PARKING
• CLOSE TO FREEWAYS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $67k (36.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $105k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,875 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,477
• List price: $104,999
• Delta: -15.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-34,290
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.08×
• Total profit: $-61,133
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77054

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,740/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$439
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,597

Max offer price $66,875

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-156	-5% $-186	+0% $-216	+5% $-246	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-268	+0% $-216	+5% $-164	+10% $-111
Rate	-1.0pp $-163	-0.5pp $-189	base $-216	+0.5pp $-243	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2121 Hepburn St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	16d	6	0.11mi
2800 Corder St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1102	$1,475	$1.34	44d	1	0.16mi
7206 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,925	$1.71	44d	1	0.16mi
7200 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,746	$1.83	0d	12	0.18mi
7901 Cambridge St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	529	$1,150	$2.17	44d	6	0.21mi
2121 El Paseo St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	804	$1,275	$1.59	44d	3	0.22mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 7121 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$819	$1.42	0d	1	0.32mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 7157 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,283	$1.38	11d	1	0.32mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$784	$1.36	8d	1	0.32mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 7121 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$859	$1.49	15d	1	0.32mi
7100 Almeda Rd Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,259	$1.35	8d	1	0.32mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,259	$1.35	6d	1	0.32mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,289	$1.39	0d	1	0.32mi
7100 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,382	$1.49	44d	1	0.32mi
7100 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$773	$1.34	13d	1	0.32mi
7100 Almeda Rd Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	575	$824	$1.43	11d	1	0.33mi
2909 Dupree St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,495	$1.46	44d	1	0.37mi
2300 Old Spanish Trl Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,800	$2.14	44d	8	0.42mi
2300 Old Spanish Trl Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,800	$2.14	21d	8	0.42mi
2300 Old Spanish Trl Unit 1060808P Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	828	$3,296	$3.98	21d	1	0.43mi
7009 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,764	$1.69	0d	22	0.44mi
8401 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	694	$1,265	$1.82	25d	1	0.48mi
8401 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,585	$1.54	22d	1	0.48mi
8401 Almeda Rd Unit SATMC3 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,585	$1.54	25d	1	0.48mi
7103 Grand Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,382	$1.49	25d	1	0.50mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 8356 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$810	$1.35	0d	1	0.51mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$775	$1.29	8d	1	0.51mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 8339 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,125	$1.25	14d	1	0.51mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,080	$1.20	8d	1	0.51mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 8303 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$815	$1.35	14d	1	0.51mi
8282 Cambridge St Unit 8333 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$764	$1.27	13d	1	0.51mi
1800 El Paseo St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,202	$1.60	0d	37	0.53mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,103	$1.56	13d	1	0.54mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Unit 2849 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,153	$1.63	11d	1	0.54mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Unit 2849 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	633	$1,149	$1.82	14d	1	0.54mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	955	$1,606	$1.68	14d	1	0.54mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Unit 1112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,149	$1.62	0d	1	0.54mi
8282 Cambridge St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	602	$810	$1.35	14d	1	0.54mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Unit 2885 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	955	$1,606	$1.68	13d	1	0.56mi
2828 Old Spanish Trl Apt 323 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,114	$1.57	8d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $439 · $5,268/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,999 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,999 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,999 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 648-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $104,999 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,995 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,995 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,995 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,995 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $109,995 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    price $113,000 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom 1 bath property located in a gated community one block to the UT Dental School and Scrubs Lab. The property comes with a refrigerator, washer and dryer. The small community has a pool & 24 hour gate monitor. 1 assigned covered parking spot. Close to the 610 & the 288 freeways, shopping, NRG and 1 block to the UT & Metro Shuttle to Texas Medical Center.

14. 2026-04-06
    price $117,999 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom 1 bath property located in a gated community one block to the UT Dental School and Scrubs Lab. The property comes with a refrigerator, washer and dryer. The small community has a pool & 24 hour gate monitor. 1 assigned covered parking spot. Close to the 610 & the 288 freeways, shopping, NRG and 1 block to the UT & Metro Shuttle to Texas Medical Center.

15. 2026-03-22
    price $118,499 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom 1 bath property located in a gated community one block to the UT Dental School and Scrubs Lab. The property comes with a refrigerator, washer and dryer. The small community has a pool & 24 hour gate monitor. 1 assigned covered parking spot. Close to the 610 & the 288 freeways, shopping, NRG and 1 block to the UT & Metro Shuttle to Texas Medical Center.

16. 2026-02-17
    listed $125,000 Active 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Lovely 2 bedroom 1 bath property located in a gated community one block to the UT Dental School and Scrubs Lab. The property comes with a refrigerator, washer and dryer. The small community has a pool & 24 hour gate monitor. 1 assigned covered parking spot. Close to the 610 & the 288 freeways, shopping, NRG and 1 block to the UT & Metro Shuttle to Texas Medical Center.

17. 2025-03-31
    historical
18. 2025-03-27
    historical $1,095
19. 2025-02-13
    listed $1,095
20. 2025-02-12
    historical $1,095
21. 2025-02-12
    listed $133,995 Active
22. 2025-02-08
    price $1,095
23. 2025-02-01
    price $1,150
24. 2025-01-16
    listed $1,210
25. 2014-06-02
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2014-06-02
    soldstatus
27. 2014-04-07
    status Pending, Continue to Show
28. 2014-03-25
    status Option Pending
29. 2014-03-06
    listed $97,000 Active
30. 2008-04-14
    soldstatus
31. 2007-12-31
    historical
32. 2007-08-15
    listed $96,500
33. 2007-08-13
    historical
34. 2007-06-25
    listed $96,500
35. 1999-07-21
    soldstatus
36. 1999-07-01
    soldstatus $45,500
37. 1997-04-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,740 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,740 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,740
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − HOA: −$5,268
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$4,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$990
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,272
• Household income: $62,106
• Rent vs Own: 88.2% rent · 11.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2814.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% Asian 22% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.51%
• Current HPI: 170.4017
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.82%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+148.4% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $113,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $117,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $118,499 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Rental Removed $1,095 HARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed for Rent $1,095 HARMLS
• 2025-02-12 Rental Removed $1,095 HARMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listed $133,995 HARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $1,095 HARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listed for Rent $1,210 HARMLS
• 2014-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-03-06 Listed $97,000 HARMLS
• 2008-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-08-15 Listed $96,500 HARMLS
• 2007-08-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-06-25 Listed $96,500 HARMLS
• 1999-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records
• 1997-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,740 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.