4060 Cazadero Hwy · Cazadero, CA 95421

$229,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 80 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2012 7,501 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to your own private retreat just one mile south of Cazadero. This beautifully remodeled 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom 2011 Champion Homes manufactured home sits on a permanent foundation and offers the perfect weekend getaway or full-time escape. Completely redone with modern updates, the home is tucked onto a generous 7,500-square-foot lot featuring private water and a fully fenced, sunny yardideal for relaxing, gardening, or enjoying peaceful afternoons outdoors. With Austin Creek directly across the street, you'll love the serene natural setting and easy access to the beauty of the surrounding landscape. Whether you're looking for a cozy retreat from city life or a simple, low-maintenance

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Permanent foundation
• Sunny yard

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• GENEROUS LOT
• PRIVATE WATER
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• SUNNY YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; No garage
• Utilities: Cable connected; Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Facing/entry level: Main level living areas
• Construction: Composition roof; Updated/remodeled construction
• Exterior features: Fenced lot; Storage structure on property; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Ductless heating; Electric heating; Multiple heating units
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; No basement; Single-story
• Laundry & utility: Laundry (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $685 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $208k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#722 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, schools B; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• West Sonoma County Union High (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #143 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $229k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.06%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,503
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $61,771
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95421

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,497/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,883

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $815	-5% $750	+0% $685	+5% $620	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $468	-5% $576	+0% $685	+5% $794	+10% $902
Rate	-1.0pp $800	-0.5pp $743	base $685	+0.5pp $626	+1.0pp $565

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6010 Cazadero Hwy Cazadero, CA	2.0	1.0	500	$2,500	$5.00	13d	1	1.46mi
6010 Cazadero Hwy Unit 6010 Cazadero, CA	2.0	1.0	500	$3,000	$6.00	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $229,000
18. 2026-03-17
    listed $249,000 Active
19. 2024-08-26
    price $275,000
20. 2024-06-13
    listed $299,000 Active
21. 2023-11-09
    price $299,000
22. 2023-10-13
    status Active
23. 2023-10-13
    historical
24. 2023-10-13
    listed $325,000 Active
25. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus $122,250 Closed
26. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus $122,500
27. 2022-04-13
    status Pending
28. 2022-04-12
    status Pending
29. 2022-03-31
    listed $150,000 Active
30. 1990-10-12
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,497 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$244/yr (+$20/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥84°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,497
• − Insurance: −$1,942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $4,791
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $7,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Sonoma County Union High
• NCES district ID: 0602670
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,845
• Composite: 43.45/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #143 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cazadero

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #722
• US rank: #21405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cazadero, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,453

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Scotch-Irish 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.86%
• Current HPI: 277.5282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+408.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $229,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $249,000 BAREIS
• 2024-08-26 Price Changed $275,000 BAREIS
• 2024-06-13 Listed $299,000 BAREIS
• 2023-11-09 Price Changed $299,000 BAREIS
• 2023-10-13 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2023-10-13 Delisted — BAREIS
• 2023-10-13 Listed $325,000 BAREIS
• 2022-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 2022-05-13 Sold (MLS) $122,250 BAREIS
• 2022-04-13 Pending — BAREIS
• 2022-04-12 Pending — BAREIS
• 2022-03-31 Listed $150,000 BAREIS
• 1990-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,497 · +56.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.