34344 Timberland Blvd · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$154,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1984 4,086 sqft lot Est $156k · at est. $218/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Why Buy This Home? (New Pricing Alert!!) Welcome to Timber Lake Estates, the last of Wesley Chapel's affordable living. Timber Lake is an all-age community with low HOA fees providing secured gate access, landscaping, water, sewer, and recycling. Discover the perfect blend of luxury and affordability in this recently remodeled home. Updates in 2021 include a new metal roof, new windows, and exterior siding with radiant barrier walls. This tasteful cottage-style home screams convenience. The air circulation and temperature control are incredibly efficient with the use of multiple split units. Enjoy endless showers with a tankless on-demand hot water he

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Exterior siding
• Smart technology

Tags

• SECURED GATE ACCESS
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• EXTERIOR SIDING
• RADIANT BARRIER WALLS
• SMART TECHNOLOGY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Property type: Residential (manufactured home), zoning RMH; Partially furnished
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported $2,616; Monthly HOA amount $218
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $218); HOA includes pool, maintenance (structure and grounds), sewer, trash, and water; Association amenities include spa/hot tub; Association approval required; Community features: clubhouse, community mailbox, golf carts allowed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; High-speed internet available (BB/HS)
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One-level; North-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Building area listed (per public records)
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Outdoor grill; Sidewalk; Concrete road access; Lot approximately 0.09 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Tankless and electric water heaters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ductless heating; Central air conditioning; Wall/window AC units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Living room/dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Double pane ENERGY STAR windows; Free-standing fireplace in family room; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 802 students, 82% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $154k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,760 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3145 Hickory Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-1%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	81
3041 Short Leaf St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (+2%)	11mo	$157,500	$135	78
3045 Shady Creek Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+5%)	6mo	$130,000	$107	77
3141 Great Oak St	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,226 (+6%)	1mo	$125,000	$102	76
3010 Whispering Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-4%)	15mo	$172,000	$156	68
3105 Briar St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-3%)	21mo	$218,000	$195	68
34313 Countryside Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-10%)	16mo	$139,900	$135	66
34135 Brown Byu	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (-6%)	10mo	$160,000	$148	65
34645 Lily Ln	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	62
3324 Carnation Ln	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	19mo	$170,000	$142	59
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	988 (-14%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	57
34701 Morning Glory Gln	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	16mo	$165,000	$156	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-14,614
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,183
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,712/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	14d	1	0.14mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.73mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	4d	1	0.76mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	12d	1	0.77mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	16d	1	0.77mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	24d	1	0.77mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	2d	1	0.81mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	16d	1	0.87mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	24d	1	0.90mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.90mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	24d	1	0.97mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	21d	1	1.00mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	24d	1	1.00mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	10d	1	1.00mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	1.00mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	14d	1	1.00mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	4d	1	1.10mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.11mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	12d	71	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerlandscaping

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $154,000 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $154,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $154,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $154,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $154,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-05-22
    price $175,000
11. 2026-05-07
    price $195,000
12. 2026-03-27
    listed $205,000 Active
13. 2026-02-28
    historical
14. 2026-02-27
    price $199,900
15. 2026-02-10
    price $189,900
16. 2026-01-29
    status Active
17. 2026-01-28
    historical
18. 2025-12-16
    price $199,500
19. 2025-12-08
    price $208,900
20. 2025-08-30
    price $209,900
21. 2025-08-01
    status Active
22. 2025-07-31
    historical
23. 2025-07-29
    status Active
24. 2025-07-26
    historical
25. 2025-07-25
    price $213,900
26. 2025-06-06
    price $214,900
27. 2025-05-05
    price $217,900
28. 2025-04-23
    price $219,900
29. 2025-04-04
    price $224,900
30. 2025-02-26
    listed $229,900 Active
31. 2024-04-05
    historical
32. 2024-02-02
    price $233,900
33. 2023-11-15
    price $234,800
34. 2023-10-05
    listed $234,900 Active
35. 2021-06-30
    soldstatus $95,000
36. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed
37. 2021-05-17
    status Pending
38. 2021-05-10
    price $99,000
39. 2021-05-03
    price $104,000
40. 2021-04-26
    status Active
41. 2021-04-03
    status Pending
42. 2021-03-23
    price $109,000
43. 2021-03-22
    status Active
44. 2021-03-06
    status Pending
45. 2021-03-01
    status Active
46. 2021-02-20
    status Pending
47. 2021-01-16
    listed $114,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,712 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,712 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$1,712
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable income: $665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$160
• After-tax cash flow: $2,797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+53.5% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $199,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $208,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $213,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $214,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $217,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-26 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $233,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $234,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-05 Listed $234,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-28 Sold (MLS) $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-03 Price Changed $104,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-23 Price Changed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-16 Listed $114,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,712 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.