12411 Anarania Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32220

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2007 6,534 sqft lot Est $344k · 45% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this opportunity in Hunters Walk! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect canvas for a buyer ready to make a home their own. If you're looking for a more relaxed, country-style setting while still enjoying convenient access to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, this property is worth a closer look. Featuring a functional floor plan and plenty of potential, this home is ready for a new owner to bring their personal style and vision to life. Whether you're looking to customize your forever home or searching for your next project, the possibilities here are endless. With a little creativity and inspiration, this property can truly shine. Offers will be reviewed

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a quarterly fee of $130; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: 0.15-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,051 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,454
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
297 Marisco Way	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+4%)	4mo	$285,000	$148	76
12357 Anarania Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,844 (+0%)	20mo	$280,000	$152	74
164 Marisco Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+3%)	18mo	$304,900	$161	64
12822 Old Plank Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,907 (+4%)	16mo	$550,000	$288	56
290 Velvet Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,892 (+3%)	24mo	$325,000	$172	54
530 Pinebrook Dr E	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,052 (+11%)	13mo	$525,000	$256	44
109 Perry Creek Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,890 (+3%)	20mo	$315,000	$167	42
12412 Woodcutter Rd	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,604 (-13%)	21mo	$375,000	$234	40
11862 Pikeville Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-13%)	22mo	$310,000	$194	31
35 Velvet Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (-13%)	17mo	$300,000	$187	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,784
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,516
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32220

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,599/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,689

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12360 Anarania Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,799	$1.42	15d	1	0.10mi
314 Marisco Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,596	$1.26	8d	1	0.11mi
176 Marisco Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,755	$1.38	24d	1	0.34mi
87 Marisco Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1922	$2,239	$1.16	3d	1	0.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $189,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,599 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,599
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $2,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,298
• Household income: $81,792
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 177.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.90%
• Current HPI: 293.7943
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $189,900 realMLS
• 2018-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-25 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-09-19 Sold (MLS) $174,870 realMLS
• 2007-09-01 Listed $174,870 realMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,599 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.