416 E Elm St · Salem, IL 62881

$62,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1900 0.28 ac lot Est $85k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offering approximately 1,000 sq ft of comfortable living space. This well-maintained property features beautiful hardwood floors throughout and a welcoming front porch-perfect for relaxing and enjoying the neighborhood. Situated on a spacious double lot, the property is surrounded by mature shade trees, providing a peaceful setting and plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or future expansion. The unfinished basement offers additional storage or potential for customization. Major updates have already been taken care of, including roof, windows, and plumbing-all upgraded within the last 10 years-giving added peace of mind to the next

Key facts

• Front porch
• Unfinished basement
• Double lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FRONT PORCH
• DOUBLE LOT
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• MAJOR UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No master association fees required

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story layout; Built over 100 years ago; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Approximately 1,008 main finished square feet; Total finished/unfinshed area approximately 2,016; Unfinished lower level about 1,008
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 111 x 111; Lot less than 0.25 acre; Lot dimensions from county records

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the main level); Master bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors in bedrooms, dining room, kitchen, living room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Separate dining room; Full unfinished cellar
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 5.5% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#467 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Salem Chsd 600 (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #571 of 919 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Salem Community High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 732 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $429 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $62k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.22%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 E Elm St	0.07mi	2/1.0	1,110 (+10%)	10mo	$30,000	$27	72
420 S Maple St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-3%)	11mo	$84,000	$86	67
315 S Lackey St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	977 (-3%)	6mo	$42,000	$43	64
527 S Rotan St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,134 (+12%)	6mo	$95,000	$84	62
511 N Shelby St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+8%)	1mo	$80,000	$73	62
201 W Warmoth St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,044 (+4%)	13mo	$74,200	$71	60
1108 S Rotan St	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,064 (+6%)	15mo	$115,000	$108	59
1220 S Jefferson St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,106 (+10%)	10mo	$86,000	$78	48
321 S Lackey St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	935 (-7%)	14mo	$40,000	$43	47
628 W Warmouth St	0.68mi	2/1.0	936 (-7%)	12mo	$126,000	$135	47
621 E Oglesby	0.57mi	2/1.0	865 (-14%)	7mo	$82,000	$95	44
114 E Oglesby St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	940 (-7%)	14mo	$82,000	$87	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $13,207
• Equity at exit: $9,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $41,482
• Equity at exit: $5,361

Cash invested: $17,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62881

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,001 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $903/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $540

Max offer price $62,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $382	+0% $365	+5% $347	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $325	+0% $365	+5% $404	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $381	base $365	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,500
• Closing costs: $1,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-17
   listed $62,000 Active
3. 2002-11-01
   soldstatus $33,000
4. 2002-06-24
   listed $37,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $903 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,473
• − Property taxes: −$903
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$961
• − Management: −$961
• − Depreciation: −$1,804
• Taxable income: $3,605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$865
• After-tax cash flow: $3,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem Chsd 600
• NCES district ID: 1735190
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,305
• Composite: 26.04/100
• National rank: #12738
• State rank: #571 of 919 in IL

Livability — Salem

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #9634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, IL
• City population: 11,218
• Population (ZIP): 11,218

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.16%
• Current HPI: 162.55
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+63.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Listed $62,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-01 Sold (MLS) $33,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-24 Listed $37,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $903 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.