19030 Keyturn Ln · Atascocita, TX 77346

$299,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1991 6,899 sqft lot Est $338k · 12% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The key to happiness is on Keyturn! Floor plan spells convenience with everything you need, 4 bedrooms, mastr down, formal dining, island kitchen with nice workspace and windows, large breakfast area, welcoming family living room with fireplace and laminate wood floors and dramatic staircase, 1/2 bath, fresh interior paint, 2013 roof, solar screens, 10x20 shed stays, water softener, extra storage on right of garage, home warranty included! Don't miss this one!

Key facts

• Open staircase
• Brand new kitchen
• Iron spindles

Tags

• OPEN STAIRCASE
• IRON SPINDLES
• LUXURY LAMINATE FLOORING
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: C.I.A Services; Annual association fee of $490

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road surface
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: first floor; Built in 1991; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision and side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (17x14); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (14x13; 13x12; 13x11); Game room on second floor (18x19)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Crown molding; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Quartz counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Self-closing cabinet doors; Self-closing drawers; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Forest El (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 67% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $299k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,457 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $338,322
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18914 Woodglen Shadows Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,954 (-1%)	7mo	$315,000	$107	78
19402 Kacey Lane Ct	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,793 (-7%)	2mo	$318,550	$114	63
6714 Village Bridge Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,924 (-2%)	2mo	$329,000	$113	57
19123 Milloak Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,547 (-15%)	8mo	$335,000	$132	56
18430 Wild Basin Trl	0.65mi	4/3.5	3,193 (+7%)	3mo	$359,900	$113	52
19315 Oak Station Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,629 (-12%)	6mo	$289,500	$110	52
5726 Green Timbers Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,592 (-13%)	1mo	$249,999	$96	51
12730 Smokey Mountain Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,857 (-5%)	1mo	$314,900	$110	51
6922 Harvest Glen Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,597 (-13%)	5mo	$415,000	$160	44
6006 Summer Oaks Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,313 (+11%)	2mo	$349,900	$106	42
19423 Climbing Oaks Dr	0.63mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,394 (+13%)	3mo	$400,000	$118	41
18606 Twigsworth Ln	0.69mi	4/3.5	2,596 (-13%)	7mo	$274,900	$106	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-42,736
• Equity at exit: $72,833

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-57,902
• Equity at exit: $77,043

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,630 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$557 /mo · $6,683/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,899

Max offer price $261,457

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	24d	1	0.43mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	44d	1	0.48mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	44d	1	0.64mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	44d	1	0.92mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	44d	1	1.03mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	1.18mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,336	$1.08	5d	1	1.20mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	12d	1	1.25mi
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	2d	1	1.28mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	22d	1	1.37mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	44d	1	1.38mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	5d	1	1.38mi
18222 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3265	$2,851	$0.87	5d	1	1.40mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	1.41mi
18431 Sailfish Cove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	3264	$2,445	$0.75	10d	1	1.41mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	22d	1	1.47mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	5d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Pending 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $299,000 Pending 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
10. 2026-04-30
    status Pending
11. 2026-04-16
    status Active
12. 2026-04-13
    status Pending
13. 2026-04-10
    listed $299,000 Active
14. 2014-12-29
    soldstatus
15. 2014-12-24
    soldstatus Sold 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    The key to happiness is on Keyturn! Floor plan spells convenience with everything you need, 4 bedrooms, mastr down, formal dining, island kitchen with nice workspace and windows, large breakfast area, welcoming family living room with fireplace and laminate wood floors and dramatic staircase, 1/2 bath, fresh interior paint, 2013 roof, solar screens, 10x20 shed stays, water softener, extra storage on right of garage, home warranty included! Don't miss this one!

16. 2014-12-08
    status Pending, Continue to Show 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    The key to happiness is on Keyturn! Floor plan spells convenience with everything you need, 4 bedrooms, mastr down, formal dining, island kitchen with nice workspace and windows, large breakfast area, welcoming family living room with fireplace and laminate wood floors and dramatic staircase, 1/2 bath, fresh interior paint, 2013 roof, solar screens, 10x20 shed stays, water softener, extra storage on right of garage, home warranty included! Don't miss this one!

17. 2014-12-07
    status Option Pending 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    The key to happiness is on Keyturn! Floor plan spells convenience with everything you need, 4 bedrooms, mastr down, formal dining, island kitchen with nice workspace and windows, large breakfast area, welcoming family living room with fireplace and laminate wood floors and dramatic staircase, 1/2 bath, fresh interior paint, 2013 roof, solar screens, 10x20 shed stays, water softener, extra storage on right of garage, home warranty included! Don't miss this one!

18. 2014-11-10
    listed $184,999 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    The key to happiness is on Keyturn! Floor plan spells convenience with everything you need, 4 bedrooms, mastr down, formal dining, island kitchen with nice workspace and windows, large breakfast area, welcoming family living room with fireplace and laminate wood floors and dramatic staircase, 1/2 bath, fresh interior paint, 2013 roof, solar screens, 10x20 shed stays, water softener, extra storage on right of garage, home warranty included! Don't miss this one!

19. 2003-04-17
    soldstatus
20. 1997-10-27
    soldstatus
21. 1995-04-01
    soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,683 · $557/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,683 · $557/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$6,683
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,525
• − Management: −$2,525
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+182.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2014-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-12-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-12-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-11-10 Listed $184,999 HARMLS
• 2003-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,683 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.