5417 Willow Creek Dr · Haines City, FL 33844

$369,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · Land · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 4,356 sqft lot $51/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The Robie is a two-story floorplan featured in Crosswinds in Haines City, Florida. With 2 exteriors to choose from, the Robie is sure to turn heads. Inside this inviting 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home, you’ll find 2,447 square feet of comfortable living. This impressive all concrete block construction, two-story plan features a versatile floorplan to fit your needs. A spacious open-concept first floor which includes a well-appointed kitchen with sleek stainless-steel appliances overlooking the living and dining area. Just off the living room you will find the singular downstairs bedroom and full bathroom. As you move upstairs you are greeted with a spacious living and

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Downstairs bedroom
• Two story floorplan

Tags

• TWO STORY FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Living area reported by builder
• Financial info: Other annual assessment $2,609; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Premier Community Management); Monthly HOA approx. $51.33 (Quarterly fee $154); HOA fee includes internet; Community amenities: pool, playground, dog park, trails, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-06-08); East-facing entry
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by D.R. Horton (model: Robie); Builder license CBC1265174; Permit number 2600541; Built area approx. 2447 (builder provided)
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Paved roads; Trees/landscaped; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility; Loft (additional room)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-624 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,510/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $251,007 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.23%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-104,199
• Equity at exit: $55,153

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-159,703
• Equity at exit: $31,982

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,548/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,300

Max offer price $279,557

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	23d	1	0.10mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.13mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	3d	1	0.14mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	23d	1	0.18mi
5161 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,100	$0.84	23d	1	0.18mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	3d	1	0.18mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	14d	1	0.19mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	23d	1	0.21mi
4757 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2451	$2,050	$0.84	23d	1	0.21mi
4034 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	3d	1	0.32mi
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	23d	1	0.35mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	23d	1	0.36mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	3d	1	0.39mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	23d	1	0.57mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	10d	1	0.74mi
144 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2712	$2,600	$0.96	23d	1	0.84mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	23d	1	0.85mi
600 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2267	$2,800	$1.24	10d	1	0.88mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	10d	1	0.89mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	11d	1	0.90mi
1305 Current Pl Haines City, FL	5.0	3.5	3182	$2,950	$0.93	23d	1	0.97mi
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.98mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	19d	1	1.00mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	23d	1	1.06mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	12d	1	1.06mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	12d	1	1.07mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	23d	1	1.12mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	19d	1	1.12mi
219 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,450	$1.01	23d	1	1.14mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	23d	1	1.15mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	14d	1	1.16mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	19d	1	1.18mi
851 Folklore Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2290	$2,195	$0.96	3d	1	1.25mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	23d	1	1.29mi
601 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2827	$2,600	$0.92	23d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $369,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $371,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $371,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $371,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $369,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $371,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$5,548
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$14,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,405
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $371,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid