2816 37th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$148,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1950 8,215 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Turn-key opportunity in Lubbock, TX. Offered fully furnished with all decor, linens, kitchenware, and contents included. Just take over and start earning from day one. This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home is already set up as a performing short-term rental on Airbnb, meaning the hard work of staging and furnishing has been done for you. Everything you need to operate , or simply move right in comes with the property. The home features a large outdoor space perfect for guests looking to relax and enjoy the West Texas evenings. The HVAC system was replaced in 2023, giving the next owner confidence in one of the most important mechanical systems in the home. Whether you're an

Key facts

• Turn-key opportunity
• Hvac system replaced
• Large outdoor space

Tags

• TURN-KEY OPPORTUNITY
• FULLY FURNISHED
• LARGE OUTDOOR SPACE
• HVAC SYSTEM REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($894/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,086 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-20,663
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-17,604
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,859/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $148,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $116	+0% $74	+5% $33	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $21	+0% $74	+5% $128	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $112	base $74	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	0.06mi
2723 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$950	$1.18	21d	1	0.07mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	44d	1	0.13mi
2701 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$1,195	$1.49	14d	1	0.18mi
2816 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	826	$825	$1.00	21d	1	0.20mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	44d	1	0.22mi
2616 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	21d	1	0.22mi
3107 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	21d	1	0.24mi
3114 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	44d	1	0.27mi
3101 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1250	$999	$0.80	44d	1	0.29mi
3126 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1248	$1,195	$0.96	44d	1	0.30mi
3007 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1353	$1,325	$0.98	21d	1	0.30mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	44d	1	0.35mi
3116 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	44d	1	0.37mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	0.39mi
3211 35th St Unit E Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	44d	1	0.39mi
3211 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	14d	1	0.39mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	0.39mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	21d	1	0.40mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	21d	1	0.40mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	14d	1	0.40mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	21d	1	0.40mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	44d	1	0.41mi
2812 43rd St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$750	$0.68	21d	1	0.41mi
2906 43rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	870	$850	$0.98	21d	1	0.42mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	44d	1	0.43mi
2815 43rd St Unit 11 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$800	$0.74	21d	1	0.45mi
3016 30th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	947	$975	$1.03	44d	1	0.46mi
2613 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	0.48mi
3221 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	982	$925	$0.94	14d	1	0.48mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	14d	1	0.49mi
2706 44th St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$680	$0.76	44d	1	0.49mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	21d	1	0.53mi
3105 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,375	$1.02	21d	1	0.53mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	0.54mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$1,075	$1.64	14d	25	0.54mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	14d	1	0.55mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	44d	1	0.55mi
2607 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	44d	1	0.55mi
2420 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	21d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $148,000 Active
3. 2021-08-20
   soldstatus
4. 2019-08-08
   soldstatus
5. 2016-07-22
   soldstatus
6. 2015-01-09
   soldstatus
7. 2014-10-29
   soldstatus
8. 2014-10-29
   soldstatus
9. 2014-10-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,859 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,708 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$850/yr (+$71/mo · 45.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$1,859
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable loss: −$1,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$379
• After-tax cash flow: $1,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $148,000 LARMLS
• 2021-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,859 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.