415 S 21 St · Mount Vernon, IL 62864

$103,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Est $122k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled home with countless updates throughout! This stylish home features an open floor plan with a spacious living and dining room combination flowing into the updated kitchen with snack bar, new countertops, appliances, and beautiful wood cabinetry. The spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an all-new private bath with a spa-like feel, complete with a walk-in shower, white tile flooring, and a convenient laundry area with stackable washer and dryer. Two additional bedrooms and second fully remodeled bathroom providing plenty of space for family or guests. Additional updates include new luxury vinyl flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and updated fixtures

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Remodeled bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• REMODELED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: School bus service available; Directions: Broadway to South 21st Street; property on corner
• Financial info: Tax exemptions: Homeowner and Senior
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Space for 4 vehicles; Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Estimated living area
• Construction: Built 81–90 years ago; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Deck; Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 137 x 50 x 137

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Master bedroom with full bath and shower-only
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring in living room, kitchen, master bedroom, and two additional bedrooms; Carpet in enclosed porch; Tile in laundry room
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Enclosed porch; 5 total rooms; Unfinished partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (7 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.3% in Mount Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#413 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mt Vernon Twp Hsd 201 (town): math 13% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #532 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $716 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $100,395 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
600 S 23rd St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,190 (-1%)	13mo	$66,000	$55	70
2810 College St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-0%)	9mo	$129,900	$109	61
820 S 20th St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,086 (-10%)	3mo	$2,900	$3	59
507 N 12th St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,140 (-5%)	1mo	$115,000	$101	54
2805 College St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,110 (-8%)	5mo	$119,000	$107	53
2808 Main St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+5%)	10mo	$127,900	$102	50
702 Magnolia Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+4%)	11mo	$165,000	$132	48
1917 Conger St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,070 (-11%)	12mo	$54,000	$50	47
2929 Logan St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,083 (-10%)	19mo	$135,400	$125	33
1006 S 26th St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,025 (-15%)	8mo	$105,000	$102	32
623 N 12th St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (+8%)	16mo	$129,000	$100	29
623 N 12th St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (+8%)	16mo	$129,000	$100	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,689
• Equity at exit: $15,432

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $7,205
• Equity at exit: $8,949

Cash invested: $28,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62864

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$543
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$129 /mo · $1,552/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $905

Max offer price $103,500

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,875
• Closing costs: $3,105
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1407 S 34th St Mt Vernon, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,310	$1.63	44d	7	1.11mi
4100 Willow Spgs Mount Vernon, IL	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	847	$855	$1.01	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $103,500 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $103,500 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $103,500 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $103,500 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $103,500 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $103,500 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $103,500 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $103,500 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $103,500 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $103,500 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $103,500 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $103,500 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $103,500 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $103,500 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $103,500 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $103,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,798
• − Property taxes: −$1,552
• − Insurance: −$518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − Depreciation: −$3,011
• Taxable income: $265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$63
• After-tax cash flow: $1,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt Vernon Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1727360
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,188
• Composite: 12.22/100
• National rank: #9648
• State rank: #532 of 620 in IL

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #8520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Vernon, IL
• Population (ZIP): 23,061

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,818 people
• By 2030: 35,764 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 33,649 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 31,557 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 26,055 · -29.2%
• By 2100: 19,237 · -47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.5% · R 73.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.7pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.1 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.64%
• Current HPI: 134.2669
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $103,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid