178 Alex Ct · Livingston, TX 77351

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 2010 0.76 ac lot Est $154k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This wonderful 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home is situated on a spacious 0.7+ acre corn lot, providing plenty of space and privacy. Located less than 10 minutes from the Naskila Casino and historic downtown Livingston, this home offers the perfect combination of convenience and tranquility. Perched on a hilltop homesite, this property boasts stunning views and is located in a zero flood zone, giving you peace of mind during inclement weather. The circle drive adds to the curb appeal and makes for easy access to the home. Inside, you'll find a cozy and inviting living space that is move-in ready. The open floor plan allows for easy entertaining, while the two bedrooms provide comfortable living spaces for you and your guests. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a piece of Livingston's beauty. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Zero flood zone
• Spacious corn lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORN LOT
• ZERO FLOOD ZONE
• CIRCLE DRIVE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,113 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.02%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,860
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
370 Norman Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0	912 (-7%)	22mo	$85,000	$93	59
149 Parklane Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,113 (+14%)	20mo	$175,000	$157	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $6,067
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $33,835
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $263/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   historical 851-char remark

   Show marketing remark (851 chars)

   This wonderful 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home is situated on a spacious 0.7+ acre corn lot, providing plenty of space and privacy. Located less than 10 minutes from the Naskila Casino and historic downtown Livingston, this home offers the perfect combination of convenience and tranquility. Perched on a hilltop homesite, this property boasts stunning views and is located in a zero flood zone, giving you peace of mind during inclement weather. The circle drive adds to the curb appeal and makes for easy access to the home. Inside, you'll find a cozy and inviting living space that is move-in ready. The open floor plan allows for easy entertaining, while the two bedrooms provide comfortable living spaces for you and your guests. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a piece of Livingston's beauty. Schedule your showing today!

2. 2025-06-24
   status Pending
3. 2025-05-29
   status Pending
4. 2025-04-26
   status Pending
5. 2025-04-19
   status Option Pending
6. 2025-04-19
   historical
7. 2025-01-14
   listed $100,000 851-char remark

   Show marketing remark (851 chars)

   This wonderful 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home is situated on a spacious 0.7+ acre corn lot, providing plenty of space and privacy. Located less than 10 minutes from the Naskila Casino and historic downtown Livingston, this home offers the perfect combination of convenience and tranquility. Perched on a hilltop homesite, this property boasts stunning views and is located in a zero flood zone, giving you peace of mind during inclement weather. The circle drive adds to the curb appeal and makes for easy access to the home. Inside, you'll find a cozy and inviting living space that is move-in ready. The open floor plan allows for easy entertaining, while the two bedrooms provide comfortable living spaces for you and your guests. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a piece of Livingston's beauty. Schedule your showing today!

8. 2025-01-09
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $263 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,567/yr (+$131/mo · 594.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$263
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,700
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$648
• After-tax cash flow: $3,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1113
• US rank: #19723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• City population: 37,143
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Delisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $100,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $100,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $263 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.