ASPEN Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$224,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily · 207 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room-ideal for relaxing and entertaining-is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Built-in pantry
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN PANTRY
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $224,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $247,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-344/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Brookshire — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,400
• List price: $224,990
• Delta: -9.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1313 Ravenna Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	3mo	$232,900	$168	91
1333 Ravenna Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	2mo	$199,900	$144	91
1233 Catalina Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	5mo	$229,900	$166	90
1213 Catalina Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	6mo	$235,900	$170	89
2116 Soriah Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+4%)	4mo	$234,900	$162	81
1217 Catalina Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	4mo	$249,900	$158	62
1317 Ravenna Pl	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+14%)	3mo	$244,900	$155	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-48,117
• Equity at exit: $36,888

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-68,219
• Equity at exit: $21,391

Cash invested: $69,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $254,990 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 26 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1559
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,297
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$309 /mo · $3,711/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,164

Max offer price $243,256

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $57	+0% $-29	+5% $-114	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-113	+0% $-29	+5% $55	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $34	base $-29	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,850
• Closing costs: $7,422
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
450 Road Runner Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$1,800	$1.00	35d	1	1.29mi
450 Road Runner Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,800	$1.06	10d	1	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $224,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, ASPEN planNew construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1388

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan-built kitchen (ASPEN plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $224,990 Active 207 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $224,990 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $224,990 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $224,990 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $224,990 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $224,990 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $224,990 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $224,990 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $224,990 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $224,990 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $224,990 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $224,990 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $224,990 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $224,990 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $224,990 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $224,990 Active 191 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $224,990 Active 190 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $224,990 Active 189 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $224,990 Active 188 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $224,990 Active 187 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $224,990 Active 186 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $224,990 Active 185 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $224,990 Active 184 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $224,990 Active 183 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $224,990 Active 182 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $224,990 Active 181 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $224,990 Active 180 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $224,990 Active 179 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $224,990 Active 178 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $224,990 Active 177 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $224,990 Active 176 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $224,990 Active 175 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $224,990 Active 174 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $224,990 Active 173 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $224,990 Active 172 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $224,990 Active 171 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $224,990 Active 170 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $224,990 Active 169 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $224,990 Active 168 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $224,990 Active 167 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $224,990 Active 166 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $224,990 Active 165 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $224,990 Active 164 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $224,990 Active 163 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $224,990 Active 162 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $224,990 Active 161 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $224,990 Active 160 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $224,990 Active 159 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $224,990 Active 158 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $224,990 Active 157 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,858
• − Property taxes: −$3,711
• − Insurance: −$1,237
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − Depreciation: −$7,197
• Taxable loss: −$4,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,093
• After-tax cash flow: $749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good layout and curb appeal. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior updates and energy-efficient improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and enhances comfort. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value to the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $224,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, ASPEN planNew construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1388

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan-built kitchen (ASPEN plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area