6747 Old Henderson Spottsville Rd · Spottsville, KY 42458

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1976 1.07 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

One story 3 bed 1 bath home perfect for first time home buyers, or investors looking to expand their portfolio.

Key facts

• 1.07 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-462/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#280 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Henderson County (suburban): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #29 of 165 in KY (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spottsville Elementary School (math 56% / reading 57%, grade C+, #57 of 676 statewide, top 9%, 547 students, 40% FRL); Henderson County North Middle School (math 37% / reading 43%, grade F, #59 of 217 statewide, top 29%, 720 students, 54% FRL); Henderson County High School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #94 of 254 statewide, top 37%, 1,958 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,157 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-14,215
• Equity at exit: $37,394

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,226
• Equity at exit: $39,247

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42458

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $565/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $148,203

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $5	+0% $-38	+5% $-82	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-83	+0% $-38	+5% $6	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $1	base $-38	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   historical
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $565 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$768/yr (+$64/mo · 135.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$565
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$774
• After-tax cash flow: $313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County
• NCES district ID: 2102710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,772
• Composite: 34.13/100
• National rank: #5285
• State rank: #29 of 165 in KY

Livability — Spottsville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #280
• US rank: #13623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spottsville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 906

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,910 people
• By 2030: 46,841 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 46,018 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 44,390 · -5.4%
• By 2075: 40,442 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 33,538 · -28.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.2) · D 34.7% · R 64.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -29.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.2 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+27.7 2012: R+11.8 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.00%
• Current HPI: 178.8349
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Delisted — HABOR
• 2026-04-25 Listed $155,000 HABOR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $565 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.