2619 E Oraibi Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Land public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1973 9,686 sqft lot $174/sqft · 21% below area Est $160k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built-on mobile home on very large lot. Undergound sprinkler system and plants. Two storage sheds and fenced property. A/C blows ice cold air with low utility costs. Added rooms are huge, this is a very comfortale home but needs some TLC. Sellers is very motivated and will except cash offers.Owner may carry. Note no electricity, owner will turn on for inspection.

Key facts

• 9,686 sq ft lot
• 10 parking spots
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot area reported from assessor; Building area reported from assessor; Directions: 101 to Cave Creek, South to Utopia, East to 27th St, North 2 streets to Oraibi
• Financial info: Current financing is non-assumable; Annual tax amount reported
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Approximately 10 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Built with other construction materials; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Chain-link fencing; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating details provided in remarks; Cooling details provided in remarks
• Interior features: Laundry details provided in remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details provided in remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Canyon School (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 366 students, 54% FRL); Explorer Middle School (math 57% / reading 53%, grade B-, #11 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 678 students, 6% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.73%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,000
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -21.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $45,593
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $117,959
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $1,071

Break-even live

Break-even rent $974

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,933	$1.93	1d	22	0.26mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,390	$2.60	2d	16	0.33mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,770	$1.95	1d	10	0.49mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,955	$2.03	1d	11	0.66mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,964	$2.30	2d	62	0.68mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	3d	9	0.81mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,500	$2.08	3d	7	0.94mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	1.22mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	2d	13	1.29mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $125,000 Active 492-char remark
2. 2002-12-06
   soldstatus $49,900
3. 2002-12-04
   soldstatus $49,000 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   Built-on mobile home on very large lot. Undergound sprinkler system and plants. Two storage sheds and fenced property. A/C blows ice cold air with low utility costs. Added rooms are huge, this is a very comfortale home but needs some TLC. Sellers is very motivated and will except cash offers.Owner may carry. Note no electricity, owner will turn on for inspection.

4. 2002-12-03
   historical 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   Built-on mobile home on very large lot. Undergound sprinkler system and plants. Two storage sheds and fenced property. A/C blows ice cold air with low utility costs. Added rooms are huge, this is a very comfortale home but needs some TLC. Sellers is very motivated and will except cash offers.Owner may carry. Note no electricity, owner will turn on for inspection.

5. 2002-07-10
   listed $49,900 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   Built-on mobile home on very large lot. Undergound sprinkler system and plants. Two storage sheds and fenced property. A/C blows ice cold air with low utility costs. Added rooms are huge, this is a very comfortale home but needs some TLC. Sellers is very motivated and will except cash offers.Owner may carry. Note no electricity, owner will turn on for inspection.

6. 1982-11-01
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $11,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,756
• After-tax cash flow: $10,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+468.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) $125,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2002-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2002-12-04 Sold (MLS) $49,000 ARMLS
• 2002-12-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-07-10 Listed $49,900 ARMLS
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.