Cobb Plan · Davenport, FL 33837

$349,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,238 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home offers the ultimate retreat with a luxurious first-floor owner's suite, complete with a spacious bedroom, full bathroom and walk-in closet. An additional bedroom is located upon entry, leading to an inviting open plan that blends a modern kitchen with the living and dining areas. Three additional bedrooms suites can be found on the second floor, steps from a full bathroom and shared living space in the versatile loft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 56 days

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $381,522.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-597 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 2025 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,056 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.30%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,522
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -8.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
146 Glenfield Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,366 (+6%)	1mo	$398,053	$168	83
143 Glenfield Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,366 (+6%)	2mo	$408,990	$173	83
1601 Swan Swim Dr	1.05mi	5/2.5	2,020 (-10%)	1mo	$330,000	$163	46
165 Cloverbrook Trl	1.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,029 (-9%)	0mo	$389,890	$192	42
3135 Rein Ave	0.86mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (-18%)	0mo	$354,990	$194	31
3119 Rein	0.85mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (-18%)	1mo	$359,990	$196	30
3126 Rein Ave #32	0.89mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (-19%)	1mo	$364,990	$201	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-107,745
• Equity at exit: $56,886

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-173,323
• Equity at exit: $32,987

Cash invested: $106,826 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 37.2 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $381,990 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 41 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 2025
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,741 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,001
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$477 /mo · $5,723/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,496

Max offer price $295,167

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-333	-5% $-465	+0% $-597	+5% $-729	+10% $-860
Rent	-10% $-813	-5% $-705	+0% $-597	+5% $-489	+10% $-380
Rate	-1.0pp $-405	-0.5pp $-500	base $-597	+0.5pp $-696	+1.0pp $-796

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,380
• Closing costs: $11,446
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1387 Berry Ln Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2522	$2,500	$0.99	110d	1	1.08mi
2007 Handsome Hill Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2287	$2,250	$0.98	65d	1	1.14mi
1678 Swan Swim Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,395	$1.60	0d	1	1.16mi
1673 Swan Swim Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	2.5	2287	$2,295	$1.00	9d	1	1.17mi
1444 Berry Ln Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2522	$2,400	$0.95	9d	1	1.18mi
2085 Doe Run Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2696	$3,400	$1.26	73d	1	1.27mi
2302 Friendly Confines Loop Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1807	$3,100	$1.72	7d	1	1.31mi
2339 White Tail St Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2343	$2,290	$0.98	9d	1	1.32mi
906 Sofia Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2183	$2,600	$1.19	85d	1	1.34mi
2358 Friendly Confines Loop Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1911	$2,500	$1.31	9d	1	1.35mi
2622 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,200	$1.20	119d	1	1.36mi
2401 White Tail St Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2340	$2,250	$0.96	6d	1	1.42mi
763 Chinoy Rd Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2446	$2,400	$0.98	63d	1	1.42mi
570 Jett Ln Davenport, FL	6.0	3.0	2614	$3,100	$1.19	93d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $344,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Cobb plan modelLocated in Davenport, FL
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,238

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named CobbActive new construction plan

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-07-24
   days on market $349,990 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-07-23
   days on market $349,990 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-07-22
   days on market $349,990 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-07-21
   days on market $349,990 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-07-19
   days on market $349,990 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-07-16
   days on market $349,990 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-07-15
   days on market $349,990 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-07-14
   days on market $349,990 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-07-13
   days on market $349,990 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-07-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-07-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-07-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-07-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-07-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-07-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-06-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-06-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 32 DOM
20. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 31 DOM
21. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 30 DOM
22. 2026-06-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 29 DOM
23. 2026-06-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 27 DOM
24. 2026-06-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 25 DOM
25. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 24 DOM
26. 2026-06-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 21 DOM
27. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 20 DOM
28. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 19 DOM
29. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 18 DOM
30. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $349,990 Active 16 DOM
31. 2026-06-10
    pricedays on market $346,990 Active 13 DOM
32. 2026-06-09
    days on market $344,990 Active 12 DOM
33. 2026-06-08
    days on market $344,990 Active 11 DOM
34. 2026-06-07
    days on market $344,990 Active 10 DOM
35. 2026-06-05
    days on market $344,990 Active 7 DOM
36. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,990 Active 5 DOM
37. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,990 Active 4 DOM
38. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,371
• − Property taxes: −$5,723
• − Insurance: −$3,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,631
• − Management: −$2,631
• − Depreciation: −$11,099
• Taxable loss: −$13,978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,355
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers a luxurious first-floor owner's suite and additional bedrooms on the second floor, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Davenport Elementary F FL #1,670/2,144 Nat'l #22,595/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Ridge Community High School F FL #539/667 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Davenport

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #7541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $344,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Cobb plan modelLocated in Davenport, FL
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,238

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named CobbActive new construction plan