14844 Bigelow St · Pilot Point, TX 76258

$309,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 4,400 sqft lot $163/sqft · 27% below area Est $427k · 27% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms and an office are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 4,400 sq ft lot

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition; Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• Financial info: Association fee charged annually
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (managed by Essex); Annual association fee; Association provides full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage faces front; Garage dimensions approximately 20' wide x 18' deep
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: MUD water; MUD sewer; Municipal utility district; Sidewalk
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; New construction (incomplete, year built 2026); Property not attached; Subdivision: Creekview
• Construction: Brick, frame, and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal; Dishwasher; Natural stone/granite counters; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air conditioning (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); 7 total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Plumbed connections as applicable (no separate washer/dryer listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Pilot Point — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,275 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $426,568
• List price: $309,999
• Delta: -27.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5715 Smiley Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-3%)	2mo	$850,000	$459	74
14549 Flossie St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,866 (-2%)	1mo	$389,990	$209	74
14498 Lovelace St	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,944 (+2%)	5mo	$359,990	$185	63
14437 Lovelace St	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,978 (+4%)	16mo	$398,905	$202	55
14474 Lovelace St	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,944 (+2%)	16mo	$437,060	$225	54
5917 Mayer Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (+5%)	6mo	$334,990	$168	54
14550 Flossie St	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,140 (+12%)	2mo	$399,990	$187	51
14441 Mietner St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (+5%)	5mo	$349,990	$176	50
14446 Mcclint St	0.68mi	4/3.0	1,944 (+2%)	14mo	$393,905	$203	49
14437 Mcclint St	0.70mi	4/3.0	1,944 (+2%)	15mo	$464,750	$239	47
5863 Anning Way	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,098 (+10%)	12mo	$445,000	$212	46
14426 Mcclint St	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,103 (+11%)	1mo	$398,000	$189	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-70,226
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-86,674
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76258

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,403 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,802

Max offer price $264,395

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-208	+0% $-315	+5% $-422	+10% $-529
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-410	+0% $-315	+5% $-220	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-159	-0.5pp $-236	base $-315	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5928 Mustang Creek Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,395	$1.26	14d	1	1.09mi
16309 Garden Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,450	$1.36	45d	1	1.14mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,700	$1.27	14d	1	1.18mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,650	$1.25	7d	1	1.18mi
6124 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2183	$2,595	$1.19	6d	1	1.19mi
14220 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,099	$1.27	6d	1	1.20mi
16629 Freshwater Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2211	$2,600	$1.18	26d	1	1.20mi
14221 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,499	$0.96	20d	1	1.20mi
6109 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,899	$1.34	4d	1	1.20mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,195	$1.22	45d	1	1.20mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,135	$1.19	14d	1	1.20mi
16625 Hidden Cove Dr Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1962	$2,495	$1.27	26d	1	1.23mi
6246 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2182	$2,695	$1.24	1d	1	1.26mi
14184 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,400	$1.16	1d	1	1.28mi
6249 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,495	$1.15	13d	1	1.30mi
14122 Emeric St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,500	$1.11	26d	1	1.30mi
14115 Harden St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.5	2534	$2,790	$1.10	45d	1	1.31mi
6113 Tahoe Winds Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2174	$2,800	$1.29	26d	1	1.31mi
14153 Golden Bridge Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,895	$1.25	19d	1	1.31mi
14114 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,200	$1.47	19d	1	1.34mi
14174 Inglebert St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	1.34mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	9d	1	1.38mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,895	$1.25	20d	1	1.38mi
14149 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.5	2423	$2,395	$0.99	9d	1	1.38mi
14133 Calderwood St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,280	$1.30	45d	1	1.39mi
3304 Lake Palestine Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2179	$2,650	$1.22	14d	1	1.42mi
14121 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	1.43mi
7108 Calshot Rd Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$1,995	$1.14	45d	1	1.46mi
5513 Deer Run Dr Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2009	$3,000	$1.49	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $309,999 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,999 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,999 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,999 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,999 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,999 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,999 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,999 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $309,999 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,999 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,999 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    price $309,999 397-char remark
13. 2026-05-10
    price $309,999 407-char remark
14. 2026-04-27
    listed $319,999 Active 397-char remark
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $319,999 Active 407-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,307
• − Management: −$2,307
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$9,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,212
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pilot Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pilot Point, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,042

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.12%
• Current HPI: 303.4015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $309,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $319,999 NTREIS