Is Bayberry Plan in Argyle, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.0% cap rate and $-1,715/mo modeled cash flow at a $503,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Bayberry Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 3.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,318/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.02

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +6.9/10.0
Cash flow +4.1/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
1% rule +0.3/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$503,990

Bayberry Plan · Argyle, TX 76226

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,820 sqft · SingleFamily · 777 Days on market

Good condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Bayberry floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

Covered porch
Primary suite
Upstairs game room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $504k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $379k (24.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (34.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $332k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 65/100 on livability (#658 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 73% / reading 63%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 1,168 students, 0% FRL); Argyle H S (math 75% / reading 86%, grade A, #36 of 1,632 statewide, top 2%, 1,477 students, 0% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1339 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 777 days — a 12% lower offer ($444k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $331,751 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 777 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.53% ✗
Cap rate: 3.01%
Cash-on-cash: -11.71%
DSCR: 0.48
GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $627,341
List price: $503,990
Delta: -19.66%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9516 Lakeway Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,870 (+2%)	2mo	$475,000	$166	73
321 Hidden Trl	0.29mi	4/3.5	2,677 (-5%)	3mo	$550,000	$205	72
4612 Brookside Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,753 (-2%)	1mo	$545,900	$198	68
405 Meandering Creek Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	3,230 (+14%)	1mo	$714,900	$221	68
139 Country Lakes Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,469 (-12%)	2mo	$575,000	$233	64
9505 Meadowpark Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	3,098 (+10%)	3mo	$559,000	$180	59
9409 Meadowpark Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	3,034 (+8%)	5mo	$499,500	$165	58
187 Stirling Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,853 (+1%)	2mo	$825,000	$289	58
5809 Parkplace Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,427 (-14%)	4mo	$485,000	$200	56
6509 Roaring Crk	0.65mi	4/3.0	3,177 (+13%)	2mo	$479,900	$151	44
208 Denton St E	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,503 (-11%)	2mo	$749,000	$299	39
6701 Roaring Crk	0.74mi	4/3.0	3,177 (+13%)	6mo	$474,999	$150	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -39.3%
Equity multiple: -0.23×
Total profit: $-215,385
Equity at exit: $93,539

10-year hold

IRR: -71.4%
Equity multiple: -0.97×
Total profit: $-346,228
Equity at exit: $54,241

Cash invested: $175,655 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 63 active · 31 under contract
Months of supply: 6.9 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $555,000 ($195/sqft)
Median days on market: 122 d
This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +14.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76226

Home prices YoY: -24.4%
Rents YoY: 1.6%
Active inventory: 1339
Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,318 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$3,290
Tax est. 1.5%: −$784 /mo · $9,410/yr
Insurance: −$261
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$697
Net cashflow: $-1,715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,488

Max offer price $379,239

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,281	-5% $-1,498	+0% $-1,715	+5% $-1,931	+10% $-2,148
Rent	-10% $-1,977	-5% $-1,846	+0% $-1,715	+5% $-1,584	+10% $-1,452
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,399	-0.5pp $-1,555	base $-1,715	+0.5pp $-1,877	+1.0pp $-2,043

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $156,835
Closing costs: $18,820
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5108 Parkplace Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2741	$2,796	$1.02	93d	1	0.39mi
5208 Brookside Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2007	$2,495	$1.24	57d	1	0.40mi
5908 Parkplace Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2516	$2,900	$1.15	52d	1	0.41mi
5100 Brookside Dr Argyle, TX	5.0	4.0	2940	$2,995	$1.02	0d	1	0.44mi
6012 Parkplace Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,700	$1.35	36d	1	0.45mi
6308 Meandering Creek Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	3419	$3,200	$0.94	93d	1	0.55mi
306 Village Way Argyle, TX	5.0	3.0	2869	$9,995	$3.48	46d	1	0.59mi
312 Carrington Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.5	3600	$6,500	$1.81	4d	1	0.73mi
525 Hearth Ter Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	3000	$3,600	$1.20	0d	1	0.75mi
6709 Roaring Crk Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2161	$2,650	$1.23	10d	1	0.77mi
9616 Creekmere Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2213	$2,395	$1.08	8d	1	0.79mi
9100 Amistad Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2320	$2,700	$1.16	0d	1	0.88mi
8508 White Rock Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2041	$3,000	$1.47	68d	1	0.95mi
304 Oak Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1947	$2,700	$1.39	7d	1	0.96mi
5308 Century Lake Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	3285	$3,395	$1.03	66d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $503,990 Active 777 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $503,990 Active 775 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $503,990 Active 774 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $503,990 Active 773 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $503,990 Active 772 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $503,990 Active 769 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $503,990 Active 768 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $503,990 Active 767 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $503,990 Active 766 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $503,990 Active 764 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $503,990 Active 762 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $503,990 Active 761 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $503,990 Active 760 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $503,990 Active 759 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $503,990 Active 758 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $503,990 Active 756 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $503,990 Active 755 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $503,990 Active 754 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $503,990 Active 753 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $503,990 Active 752 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $503,990 Active 751 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $503,990 Active 750 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $503,990 Active 749 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $503,990 Active 748 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $503,990 Active 747 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $503,990 Active 745 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $503,990 Active 744 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $503,990 Active 743 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $503,990 Active 742 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $503,990 Active 741 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $503,990 Active 740 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $503,990 Active 739 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $503,990 Active 738 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $503,990 Active 737 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $503,990 Active 736 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $503,990 Active 735 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $503,990 Active 734 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $503,990 Active 732 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $503,990 Active 730 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $503,990 Active 729 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $503,990 Active 726 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $503,990 Active 725 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $503,990 Active 724 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $503,990 Active 723 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $503,990 Active 721 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $503,990 Active 720 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $503,990 Active 717 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $503,990 Active 716 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $503,990 Active 715 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $503,990 Active 712 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $39,810
− Mortgage interest: −$35,141
− Property taxes: −$9,410
− Insurance: −$3,137
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,185
− Management: −$3,185
− Depreciation: −$18,250
Taxable loss: −$32,497

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,799
After-tax cash flow: $-12,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Argyle, TX, is in good condition with a neutral and inviting exterior. It's move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hilltop El B- TX #409/4,322 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Argyle Middle A- TX #73/1,662 Nat'l #970/14,009 High Argyle H S A TX #36/1,632 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Argyle ISD
NCES district ID: 4808670
Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $108,516
Composite: 64.16/100
National rank: #568
State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Argyle

Score: 65/100
State rank: #658
US rank: #12392

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Argyle, TX
County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
City population: 43,587
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 43,587
Household income: $180,982
Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
Current HPI: 253.1948
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2025-03-01 Price Changed $518,990 Zillow
2025-03-01 Price Changed $503,990 Zillow
2025-02-01 Price Changed $513,990 Zillow
2025-02-01 Price Changed $498,990 Zillow
2024-06-22 Listed $493,990 Zillow
2024-06-03 Listed $508,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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