7030 SW 19th Ln · Topeka, KS 66615

$295,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,921 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2007 7,405 sqft lot Est $290k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.17 acres
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence (single house); Residential property
• Construction: Frame and stone exterior; Composition roof; Basement (full, concrete, partially finished, walk-out, daylight)
• Exterior features: Patio; Deck; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Coffered ceilings; Storm windows; Finished daylight, walk-out basement (partial finish) with concrete construction
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Topeka — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#195 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Auburn Washburn (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #29 of 169 in KS (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washburn Rural Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #72 of 219 statewide, top 38%, 943 students, 36% FRL); Washburn Rural High (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #83 of 327 statewide, top 25%, 1,884 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 219 units permitted in Shawnee County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shawnee County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,234 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,071
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1727 SW Hidden Valley Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,660 (-14%)	19mo	$250,000	$151	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-60,109
• Equity at exit: $44,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-67,829
• Equity at exit: $25,549

Cash invested: $82,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66615

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,550
• Tax from tax record: −$458 /mo · $5,496/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,697

Max offer price $261,339

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,875
• Closing costs: $8,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $295,500 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $295,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,496 · $458/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,496 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,553
• − Property taxes: −$5,496
• − Insurance: −$1,478
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,354
• − Management: −$2,354
• − Depreciation: −$8,596
• Taxable loss: −$7,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,777
• After-tax cash flow: $-544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Auburn Washburn
• NCES district ID: 2003200
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $71,903
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5073
• State rank: #29 of 169 in KS

Livability — Topeka

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #8848

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shawnee County · 118,130 people
• City population: 118,130
• Metro: Topeka, KS
• Population (ZIP): 2,943
• Household income: $107,656
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 77.0

Population outlook (Shawnee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,277 people
• By 2030: 177,762 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 172,341 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 166,330 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 152,417 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 134,782 · -24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shawnee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.3% · R 48.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+3.0 2016: R+2.8 2012: R+1.7 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.55%
• Current HPI: 238.2642
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Topeka, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $295,500 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2007-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,496 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.