The McGinnis Plan · Perry, GA 31069

$272,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 510 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

• Access to the yard
• Walk-in closets
• Wide entry

Tags

• WIDE ENTRY
• TRADITIONAL DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM
• ACCESS TO THE YARD
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $272,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,174.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#149 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 466 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 510 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,942 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 510 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,174
• List price: $272,900
• Delta: -6.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1207 Swift St	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,403 (+1%)	5mo	$360,000	$150	58
1304 Swift St	0.75mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,372 (0%)	0mo	$343,500	$145	56
123 Pridgen Pass	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,604 (+10%)	7mo	$505,368	$194	45
200 Farmland Cir Lot 1 AG	0.64mi	4/4.0	2,605 (+10%)	4mo	$459,900	$177	45
205 Farmland Cir	0.69mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,125 (-10%)	1mo	$379,900	$179	42
102 Pridgen Pass	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,704 (+14%)	4mo	$502,944	$186	38
101 Pridgen Pass	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,702 (+14%)	7mo	$507,976	$188	38
103 Red Barn Ct #34	0.68mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,550 (+8%)	18mo	$313,540	$123	34
101 Bald Cypress Dr Unit 80G	0.67mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,481 (+5%)	24mo	$335,900	$135	32
1202 Fairway Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-14%)	9mo	$318,000	$156	31
1202 Fairway Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-14%)	9mo	$318,000	$156	31
101 Black Birch Rd Unit 32G	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,637 (+11%)	23mo	$349,900	$133	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-61,122
• Equity at exit: $43,415

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-71,077
• Equity at exit: $25,175

Cash invested: $81,529 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31069

• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,527
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,368/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,547

Max offer price $259,427

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,793
• Closing costs: $8,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1215 Macon Rd Perry, GA	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,700	$0.96	13d	1	0.40mi
111 Judy Kay Way Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,000	$1.14	21d	1	1.08mi
1726 Greenwood Cir Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1647	$3,490	$2.12	21d	1	1.14mi
1726 Greenwood Cir Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	1647	$3,490	$2.12	43d	1	1.14mi
1739 Houston Lake Rd Perry, GA	3.0	2.0	2163	$1,895	$0.88	43d	1	1.22mi
1115 Kingston Rd Perry, GA	4.0	3.0	1740	$2,000	$1.15	21d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $272,900 Active 510 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,900 Active 509 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,900 Active 508 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,900 Active 507 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,900 Active 506 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $272,900 Active 504 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,900 Active 503 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $272,900 Active 501 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,900 Active 500 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $272,900 Active 499 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $272,900 Active 498 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $272,900 Active 495 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,900 Active 494 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,900 Active 493 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,900 Active 492 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,900 Active 491 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $272,900 Active 490 DOM
18. 2026-03-06
    price $272,900 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

19. 2025-06-07
    price $270,900 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

20. 2025-01-25
    listed $259,900 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,310
• − Property taxes: −$4,368
• − Insurance: −$1,456
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,179
• − Management: −$2,179
• − Depreciation: −$8,471
• Taxable loss: −$7,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,855
• After-tax cash flow: $-778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Perry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #9757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Perry, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 22,953
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,953
• Household income: $74,501
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.01%
• Current HPI: 240.9327
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $272,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $270,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-25 Listed $259,900 Zillow